Why changes in life expectancy draw fragmented European map

For more than 150 years, life expectancy has risen steadily across the world’s wealthiest nations. The 20th century saw especially dramatic gains, largely tied to declines in infectious diseases and major breakthroughs in cardiovascular treatment. In recent years, however, a debate over whether humanity may be approaching a “biological human longevity ceiling” is increasingly emerging among specialists, as improvements in life expectancy across several Western countries have slowed to a crawl.

A French study analyzing data from 1992 to 2019 set out to examine this issue, with their findings described in a recent article by The Conversation. Covering 450 regions in Western Europe and nearly 400 million people, the research sought to determine whether these areas were hitting a plateau or whether further progress remained possible.

The findings offered an unprecedented overview of regional longevity trends across Europe over almost three decades. Researchers were surprised to discover that regions already posting high life expectancy figures continued to make steady gains at rates comparable to those seen in earlier decades. Standout performers included areas in Northern Italy, Switzerland, as well as parts of Spain and France.

By contrast, the outlook was more troubling for regions that had previously been catching up. Although these areas experienced strong and rapid improvements in the 1990s and early 2000s — at times advancing faster than any other regions — that momentum eventually stalled. The study highlighted East Germany, Wallonia in Belgium, and certain parts of the United Kingdom as places where gains in life expectancy have dropped sharply.

According to the researchers, Europe now appears split between leading regions that continue to advance and lagging regions where progress is slowing or even reversing. This growing regional divide stands in contrast to the catch-up dynamic that characterized the 1990s.

Surprising trend hiding within data

To better understand the shift, the team examined mortality trends across different age groups. Their analysis showed that regional divergence cannot be attributed to rising infant mortality, which remains very low across the continent, nor to mortality among those over 75, where death rates are decelerating everywhere. Instead, the key factor lies in mortality around age 65.

During the 1990s, deaths in this age bracket fell sharply, thanks in part to improved access to cardiovascular care and changes in risk-related behaviours. Since the 2000s, however, some regions have reported a higher risk of death among people aged 55 to 74.

This pattern is particularly evident among women in France’s Mediterranean coastal areas and across much of Germany. Mortality trends in these middle-age groups are critical for overall life expectancy, as a significant share of deaths occur during these years. Even modest stagnation or increases in mortality between ages 55 and 74 can disrupt broader progress.

While the study did not pinpoint precise causes behind these concerning trends, researchers suggested several possible explanations. These include risk-related behaviours such as smoking, alcohol consumption, poor diet, and lack of physical activity — all of which tend to manifest in midlife.

The aftermath of the 2008 economic crisis also appears to have played a major role, widening regional disparities across Europe. Some areas endured long-term setbacks that negatively affected population health, while others — particularly those with concentrations of highly skilled employment — continued to see improvements. The findings underscore that longevity depends not only on medical advances but also on broader social and economic conditions.

By Nazrin Sadigova