Why experts are not convinced Kim Jong Un decided on successor

North Korea released a rare image on 28 February showing leader Kim Jong Un’s teenage daughter firing a rifle at a shooting range alongside her father, fuelling renewed speculation that she is being groomed as his successor. Questions about succession have surfaced repeatedly since reports a few years ago about Kim’s deteriorating health.

When North Korea’s ruling party convened a high-level meeting this month, there were the expected declarations about unstoppable nuclear development — and, more unexpectedly, a remark by Kim Jong Un suggesting that his country and the United States “could get along,” provided Washington recognised North Korea as a legitimate nuclear power.

For many observers, however, the Workers’ Party congress — held over several days just once every five years — offered a rare opportunity to speculate about the country’s future leader.

The steady portrayal of his daughter as the “dear daughter” of the supreme leader, along with rumours that she has been appointed missile general director, have been widely interpreted as signs of Kim Ju Ae’s potential future role in the regime.

Yet some experts argue that significant obstacles remain — particularly North Korea’s entrenched gender politics, which could complicate her path to power.

“The most immediate and insurmountable barricade for Kim Ju-ae is the deeply ingrained patriarchal nature of North Korea,” Mitch Shin, who covers the Korean peninsula for The Diplomat, wrote this month, adding that North Korea functioned “more as a Neo-Confucian monarchy” than as a socialist state.

There is little indication that the country’s ageing military elite would accept a woman as “supreme leader,” Shin added. “For these men, many in their 60s and 70s, the concept of swearing absolute and life-and-death loyalty to a young woman is more than a cultural shift. It is a structural anomaly that threatens the internal logic of the regime.”

North Korea remains a male-dominated society, with top positions overwhelmingly held by men. Although Kim Jong Un may seek gradual reform, the role of women in society cannot be transformed overnight. At the recent 9th Party Congress of the Korean Workers’ Party, only two women sat on the Politburo: Choe Son Hui and Kim Yo Jong, the leader’s younger sister.

Some analysts suggest that Kim may instead be using his daughter as a “human shield” to protect the actual successor — long rumoured to be his eldest child. “In this way, his son can be shielded from the prying eyes of international intelligence,” Shin noted in his article.

In 2023, South Korean intelligence officials told lawmakers that Kim and his wife likely also have an older son and a younger third child, whose gender has not been disclosed.

“Kim Jong-un has not told any foreign interlocutor that he has a son,” said Lee Sung-Yoon, a principal fellow at the Sejong Institute in Seoul, adding that the claim had been based on “flimsy intelligence reports” of boys’ toys and nappies being delivered to the Kim family residence in Pyongyang several years ago.

Other experts contend, however, that while patriarchy is deeply embedded in North Korean society, it may ultimately be secondary to the regime’s central principle: that leadership must pass through the direct Mount Paektu bloodline — a reference to the sacred peak from where, according to a legend propagated by the government, the Kim dynasty descends. 

Shreyas Reddy, a correspondent for NK News, also questioned the assumption that Kim Ju Ae’s succession is inevitable, describing her public prominence as more symbolic than political. “State media’s portrayal of Kim’s affection toward his daughter aligns with a growing push to depict him as a loving ‘father’ figure to the entire nation,” Reddy wrote.

Despite her increasing visibility, North Korean state media have never published her name, referring to her only as the leader’s “respected” or “most beloved” child. There is even disagreement over how her given name should be pronounced.

Much of the recent speculation about Kim Ju Ae’s presumed rise has been driven by South Korea’s national intelligence service, which claimed this month that Kim Jong Un was close to formally designating her as his successor.

Even if that proves true in the future, for now her primary role remains that of a daughter, according to Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, as cited by The Guardian . “She is probably not yet old enough to participate in the congress with an official party title,” he said.

At 13 or 14 years old, her status — even as a potential heir — remains fluid. Historically, North Korean successors have been confirmed later in life. Kim Jong Il was identified as heir in the 1970s, while Kim Jong Un’s own succession was secured only around 2009, after his two older brothers were deemed unfit to lead. Given that she has siblings, Kim Ju Ae’s position as a presumed heir is far from guaranteed.

At the same time, some analysts point to her appearance alongside her father on New Year’s Day at the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun — the sacred mausoleum of the Kim dynasty — as a powerful symbolic gesture that, in their view, leaves little doubt about her standing as the chosen successor.

Even if a woman were to assume power in a country like North Korea, analysts say the system itself would be unlikely to change. A female leader would probably adopt the same governing style and political posture as her predecessors. Kim Yo Jong, the sister of Kim Jong Un, has offered a glimpse of that dynamic, with public statements that are often even more combative than her brother’s.

Although Kim Ju-ae might face certain constraints in modeling herself directly on earlier leaders such as Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il, experts suggest that if she were to take power, she would likely govern in much the same authoritarian mold as Kim Jong Un.

The most notable shift, observers argue, would not be ideological but symbolic — potentially elevating the status of women within North Korea’s rigidly patriarchal system.

By Nazrin Sadigova