World Bank: High energy revenues to keep Azerbaijan's budget, current account surplus on track

The World Bank (WB) forecasts Azerbaijan's current account surplus for 2025 at 11.6% of GDP.

According to the WB, this figure is expected to decline in the following years: 5.4% of GDP in 2026, 3.8% of GDP in 2027, 3.6% of GDP in 2028, and 3.4% of GDP in 2029, Caliber.Az reports, 

The bank estimates that Azerbaijan's state budget surplus and current account surplus will be maintained thanks to high revenues from oil and gas. From 2019 to 2023, the average current account surplus was 14.9% of GDP, while the budget surplus was around 4.1% of GDP.

The share of tax revenues in GDP increased from 14.5% in 2019 to 18% in 2023 due to improvements in tax administration.

“The country's fiscal policy was characterized by a pronounced pro-cyclical nature, as government spending was frequently revised upward, especially against the backdrop of high energy prices. At the same time, the growth of tax revenues from non-carbon sectors helped reduce the non-oil and gas primary deficit in line with the fiscal rule,” the bank notes.

As per Azerbaijan's government forecasts, the current account surplus for 2025 is expected to be 5.6% of GDP. For 2025–2028, taking into account oil and gas production forecasts, the current account surplus is projected to be about 3% of GDP annually.

The Central Bank of Azerbaijan forecasts a current account surplus for 2025 at $5.5 billion.

For reference, as of the first 9 months of 2024, Azerbaijan's current account surplus stood at approximately $4 billion, or 7.2% of GDP.