WP: Iran’s nuclear program in rubble after Israeli-US blitz

Israel and the United States now believe that Iran’s nuclear infrastructure — including its ability to produce an atomic bomb — has been effectively dismantled. According to growing assessments reported by The Washington Post, Iran’s nuclear program has sustained such heavy damage that it will be set back by at least a year, and possibly much longer.

“Iran is no longer a threshold nuclear state,” a senior Israeli source familiar with the intelligence told the Post. According to this source, even if Iran attempted to conceal future nuclear activity, it would still require one to two years to produce a deliverable nuclear weapon. Iran could, in theory, try to display a rudimentary nuclear device sooner, but Israeli intelligence would likely detect any such effort in time to launch a preemptive strike.

This account supports claims by both the Israeli government and the Trump administration that the recent campaign against Iran succeeded in achieving its key goals. However, some concerns remain unresolved. Officials acknowledged that Iran may have managed to hide centrifuges, stockpiles of uranium, or even components of a weapon that escaped destruction. Tehran could react with a desperate attempt to construct a bomb using limited resources, or retaliate through terrorist operations targeting Israel or the US. Significant unknowns remain.

Israeli and US officials said that the joint bombing campaign not only destroyed a large portion of Iran’s uranium-enriching centrifuges but also dismantled most of the apparatus necessary to weaponise that uranium. Israeli intelligence believes Iran had been researching several advanced weapons, including a standard fission warhead, a more complex thermonuclear fusion bomb, and even an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) device designed to cripple Israel’s electronic infrastructure.

Israeli officials claimed that the assassination of key Iranian scientists halted the progress of these projects. The EMP weapon was reportedly backed by leaders within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), who argued it did not violate Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s religious decree (fatwa) against nuclear arms. Nevertheless, Israel contends that rapid development was underway regardless of that fatwa and that Iran had been awaiting final approval from Khamenei to proceed with building a bomb.

The operation itself — consisting of airstrikes, espionage, and advanced data coordination — has been described by Israeli and US sources as an unprecedented fusion of air war, intelligence warfare, and algorithmic targeting. These sources, who spoke anonymously due to the sensitivity of the topic, said the strikes showcased an extraordinary integration of complex intelligence and battlefield execution.

The final blow came from the United States, whose B-2 bombers deployed bunker-busting munitions while naval forces launched Tomahawk cruise missiles. This decisive action capped off Israel’s strikes, giving President Donald Trump a share of the operational success and sending a powerful signal of US military capability.

According to sources familiar with the planning, the Trump administration authorized Israel to begin its attack on June 13 but indicated it would directly intervene only if the campaign proved effective. As Israel prepared for a final phase that might have aimed to topple Iran’s leadership, Trump declared a ceasefire.

Post-strike assessments by Israel largely matched US intelligence findings. The joint strikes destroyed Iran’s uranium enrichment facility at Natanz and disabled the heavily fortified underground complex at Fordow. Additional attacks obliterated the uranium conversion plant in Isfahan, which was essential for transforming enriched uranium into weapon-grade metal, and buried a covert site containing 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium.

Even if Iran possesses other hidden caches of enriched uranium, Israeli experts say such material would not be sufficient to construct a “dirty bomb” — a device meant to spread radioactive contamination in a manner similar to the Chernobyl disaster.

During the first 48 hours of the campaign, Israel gained total air superiority and succeeded in destroying around 1,500 of Iran’s 3,000 ballistic missiles, along with approximately 80 percent of its 500 missile launchers. Iran had reportedly aimed to expand its missile arsenal to 8,000, and delaying the strike could have exposed Israel to significantly more retaliatory damage. However, Israeli officials were surprised by the size of Iran’s stockpile of solid-fuel missiles, which are more difficult to intercept during flight.

Beyond targeting nuclear installations and scientists, Israeli strikes also dismantled the program’s operational backbone, including headquarters, laboratories, archives, and testing infrastructure. While this devastation may intensify Iran’s desire to develop a nuclear deterrent, rebuilding such a sophisticated network will likely take years.

As the 12-day war concluded, the Trump administration now faces the strategic question of whether to pursue a new nuclear deal that would prevent Iran from reviving its program. For now, Tehran has refused US demands for a complete ban on uranium enrichment, casting doubt on future negotiations.

Both the US and Israel hope that Iran will remain a party to the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which allows international inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency. But at present — and for the foreseeable future — most of Iran’s nuclear facilities are nothing more than rubble.

By Tamilla Hasanova