WSJ: Why Iran, Russia abandoned Assad in his moment of crisis?

Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine diverted attention and resources, while Iran became entangled in regional conflicts—particularly Israel's military strikes against Hezbollah—leaving Assad without adequate military support to counter the advancing rebel coalition.

“Both Russia and large parts of the Syrian regime, including senior political and military figures, recognized that Assad’s circle was a sinking ship,” said Lina Khatib a Middle East security expert, Caliber.Az reports via The Wall Street Journal.

The loss of key areas to the rebels reflects not just military defeat, but also the profound political disintegration of Assad’s regime.

Meanwhile, Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad has fled the country as armed rebels closed in on Damascus, marking the end of his 50-year rule. On December 7, Assad failed to deliver a planned national address, and by late hours, officials learned he had escaped the country ahead of the advancing rebels.

The swift collapse highlights the military’s weaknesses, exacerbated by years of corruption, defections, and economic woes. Iran and Russia had been key supporters, but both nations pulled back their military support due to their own geopolitical priorities.

As the rebels seized strategic territories such as Aleppo and Hama, panic engulfed Damascus. Reports indicated widespread shortages of supplies as residents rushed to buy necessities amid fears of violence.

Despite these conditions, the rebels achieved swift victories, overwhelming Assad’s military and securing control of vital urban strongholds. Analysts such as Aron Lund from the Swedish Defence Research Agency noted that Assad's government had received a "knockout blow early on" and failed to recover from these early setbacks.

Thus, the successful offensive by Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has sparked celebrations among residents in Damascus, marking a turning point for Syria. HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani celebrated the moment, vowing to rebuild Syria and continue the path of popular revolution that began in 2011. This represents a new political reality for the war-torn nation, as competing militias and factions scramble for power following Assad's departure.

With Assad gone and Damascus under new leadership, Syria faces an uncertain future. The immediate priority for HTS and other factions is consolidating control while addressing humanitarian crises exacerbated by 13 years of war. As rival militias, Kurdish groups, and U.S.-backed forces advance their agendas, Syria’s path toward stability and governance remains fraught with challenges.

By Aghakazim Guliyev