"I did everything I could..."
Farhad Mammadov comments on outcomes of CSTO summit in Yerevan

POLITICS  24 November 2022 - 17:00

Azerbaijani political expert Farhad Mammadov, head of the South Caucasus Research Centre, analyzed in his Telegram channel the CSTO summit held in Yerevan the day before.

"I did everything I could...".

These words of Boris Yeltsin, which he said on New Year's Eve and resigned, may soon be said by Armenia's prime minister. Pashinyan's refusal to sign the CSTO declaration demonstrates that Armenia is not satisfied with the position of the other CSTO members.

A situation is emerging where Armenian caprices are detrimental to CSTO consolidation. However, is it only Armenia that is dissatisfied with the absence of a CSTO decision?

After all, the absence of a CSTO decision means the absence of any CSTO mission on Armenian territory... that is, the EU mission is left unattended... and this is not in Russia's interests!

We can assume that Russia will actively work to reach an agreement within the CSTO to have a monitoring mission after all. If this fails too, it will be another blow to Russia's position in Armenia, because for Armenians the CSTO is Russia.

So, with just a week to go before the end of November, nothing is heard about a summit in Brussels. Russia is keen to resume its leading position in mediation, with Putin in Armenia talking as much about a peace treaty as about unblocking it. That is to say, the Russian vision of mediation has undergone a change, with the topic of the peace treaty moving to the forefront.

Russia's activity is viewed with distrust in both Azerbaijan and Armenia. Azerbaijan marks the "Vardanyan project", Armenia convulses when Russia talks about unblocking it...

Thus, Russia must understand that it is impossible to achieve its own goals, to maintain its exclusivity, which it had after the 44-day war, by putting pressure on the parties. And it is Russia's own fault for missing 2021. It has relaxed, to put it mildly.

What can Pashinyan do?!

Pashinyan in the current situation can simply throw up his hands and say "I fought to the end and did my best..." and go for the signing of a peace treaty with Azerbaijan. He has already gone too far and the threat of unilateral action by Azerbaijan is great. At this stage, Pashinyan just believes that the use of force by Azerbaijan will clash Baku with Moscow and Washington to a greater extent. Here, the time allocated for the peace agreement - the end of the year - becomes important. Pashinyan's manoeuvres over the last month and a half have made things even more difficult for Armenia, but there is still room and time to rectify the situation. Recall the behaviour of the Armenian leadership at the beginning of August on the subject of the new road in Lachin.

Compromises?! At the expense of whom?!

The Russian president in Iravan talked about compromises to reach a peace agreement.

And what compromises is Russia ready for?! After all, Russia is "on the ground"!

The only way out for Russia is to share its exclusivity in Zangazur and Lachin corridors, to become constructive in Karabakh in the process of reintegration.

And there is a reason for that. The South Caucasus region meets Russia's stated expectations in the modern period. After all, as President Putin said, the true independence of Russia's neighbours is to cooperate with Russia and not to become a bridgehead against Russia.

Partial solutions are also possible. For example, Armenia provides a route for the road as Azerbaijan wants. However, this does not remove the issue of checkpoints in the Zangazur and Lachin corridors.

The time of small compromises is irrevocably over...

One last thing... The US and the EU will have to understand and acknowledge who is frustrating the progress of their mediation, who is frustrating all the deadlines and stirring up topics that have in principle already been negotiated," Farhad Mammadov wrote.

Caliber.Az