Alternative to peace treaty with Armenia Farhad Mammadov's reasoning

Political scientist and head of the South Caucasus Research Centre Farhad Mammadov has asked on his Telegram channel - "What is the alternative to a peace treaty with Armenia?"

"The French president's recent statements, the granting of additional functions to the EU mission, the French Senate upcoming resolution, as well as [US Congressman Frank] Palone's statements about the US intentions regarding Karabakh, allow us to say that the West does not want a full-fledged peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

The USA, France and their support group did their best to discredit the EU head's mediation mission. And thus, the West has aligned itself with Russia and Iran, which also do not want long-term peace. Let me note that the draft peace treaty [proposed] by Russia has a clause on the "status" of Karabakh, and Iran has dragged the IRGC to the border with Armenia and Azerbaijan altogether.

Armenia has accumulated so many unfulfilled obligations and lies that a separate post is required... And the Armenian leadership's behaviour along the routes to Nakhchivan may be the last straw in the Azerbaijani leadership's cup of patience...

What can the alternatives be?

- Checkpoint in Lachin and an ultimatum on the withdrawal of the remnants of the Armenian Armed Forces from Karabakh, the subsequent destruction of military infrastructure and manpower. Let's see where the coffins go – it will be proof that the Armenian Armed Forces are still in Karabakh.

- Will the Armenians in the area leave? That shouldn't bother you too much because it's their choice. Whoever wants to will stay... and others will return to their home country. [Armenian tycoon Ruben] Vardanyan will help them.

- After that, it is already possible to resume relations with Armenia through Zimbabwe's mediation... without the Armenian Armed Forces on the Azerbaijani territory and with the checkpoint in Lachin. A new situation, new conditions without the framework of a Trilateral Statement…

Alternative's costs

The howl of the Armenians – and it is still there…

The threat of sanctions from the United States, France, and Luxembourg, but not the EU - some countries will veto. Yes, it will stink, but we can put up with it.
The imposition of sanctions will completely discredit the West in Azerbaijan.

Russia's actions – the Russian peacekeeping contingent in Karabakh will lose its significance. Russia itself is to blame for this, not fulfilling its obligations. We'll have to accept reality. Moreover, the corridor will pass through the territory of friendly countries for Russia – Azerbaijan, Iran and Türkiye. It didn't work out any other way…

Alternative's advantages

Azerbaijan will pave the road to Nakhchivan through Iran. And Tehran will calm down, and China is fine, as I noted about Russia above.

Azerbaijan remains in advantageous positions on the conditional border with Armenia – let the EU, OSCE and CSTO missions wander between the positions there.

European countries will not stop buying our gas – at least the countries that have already contracted relatively cheap Azerbaijani gas.

Let's get rid of the West's threats against Karabakh…

We are slowly continuing negotiations with Armenia on a peace treaty with new conditions and with observer missions on the border.

Armenia continues to remain with closed borders all this time. Along with this, we leave the Armenian leadership to choose foreign policy priorities – let them sort out their relations with Russia, the United States and Iran themselves," Farhad Mammadov wrote.