Bloomberg: Türkiye considers joining Ukraine peacekeeping mission to strengthen EU ties

The latest analysis by Bloomberg suggests that Türkiye may offer its military support for a potential peacekeeping mission in Ukraine, should such a mission be established, as part of a broader effort to enhance its influence on the European Union.

"Now President Erdogan wants closer defence and economic cooperation with the EU in return for security as the continent looks at ways to reduce reliance on Washington. That could include Turkish troops joining a future Ukraine peacekeeping mission," the authors note citing informed sources.

“Independent policymaking under Erdogan is paying off as it showcases the value of a strategic NATO ally when the West is having trouble,” said Hasan Yukselen, founder of Fusion4Strategy, a risk consultancy based in Ankara. “Türkiye had a critical role in containing the Soviet Union during the Cold War, and it’s emerging as a country that can help end conflicts and stabilize the region.”

Türkiye is leveraging its traditional role at the crossroads of Europe and the Middle East, balancing NATO membership and its Muslim identity under Erdogan, giving it credibility on both sides. The country controls vital routes for maritime trade and energy shipments and played a key role in brokering an agreement that allowed Ukrainian grain to reach international markets via the Black Sea. It also serves as a crucial barrier to prevent the flow of refugees into Europe.

Currently, Türkiye’s defense capabilities are its strongest asset. Europe is scrambling to bolster its defense in the wake of President Donald Trump's withdrawal of aid to Ukraine and his insistence that the continent should not rely on the US. Türkiye has the second-largest fleet of F-16 fighter jets in NATO, after the US. It also hosts the Incirlik Air Base, used for operations against Islamic State, and the Kurecik radar site, a critical component of NATO’s ballistic-missile defense for Europe.

Ankara is reportedly considering a non-combat mission to help monitor the line of contact between Ukraine and Russia in the country’s east, contingent on Moscow's approval, according to anonymous sources familiar with the discussions.

Türkiye’s defense industry is also growing in prominence. The country has become a key supplier of 155mm shells for Ukraine and is a growing exporter of naval ships, combat drones, and armored vehicles. It is also developing ballistic missiles, main battle tanks, and warplanes. Additionally, an Italian company, Leonardo SpA, has partnered with a firm led by Erdogan’s son-in-law to develop drones.

Although Türkiye does not expect full EU membership, it hopes that deepening defense ties with Europe could pave the way for greater inclusion in NATO-EU security initiatives, such as Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO). Strengthening these ties could also provide momentum for updating Türkiye’s customs union agreement with the EU and securing visa-free travel for Turkish citizens, sources say.

“The EU is already Türkiye’s largest trade partner and strategic ally in issues such as migration, but the indefinite stall on Turkish accession has acted as a drag on the relationship,” said Selva Bahar Baziki, an economist at Bloomberg Economics in Ankara. “Now, the prospect of improved relations could lead to a surge in portfolio and investment flows.”

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 presented an opportunity for Erdogan to improve relations with Western allies while maintaining ties with Russia. Türkiye closed its straits to Russian warships, barred Russian military aircraft from its airspace, and supplied Ukraine with armed drones and 155mm shells. However, Türkiye has refrained from joining sanctions against Moscow.

Türkiye has also led the creation of a Black Sea force with Romania and Bulgaria to clear mines and improve shipping safety, carefully excluding other NATO members, including the US and UK, from the operation to avoid escalating tensions in the region.

On March 2, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan attended an emergency summit in London, the first of its kind for Türkiye, to discuss efforts to secure Ukraine. The following day, Erdogan emphasized Türkiye’s importance to European security during an iftar dinner with ambassadors, stating, “It is becoming increasingly impossible for a Europe in which Türkiye is not included as it deserves to be, to continue its existence as a global actor. To put it bluntly: European security without Türkiye is unthinkable.”

By Tamilla Hasanova