Russian oil trade adapts: China buys more, India imports hit three-year low

Russia’s crude shipments have remained largely steady despite mounting pressures on the country’s oil trade, with China emerging as the dominant buyer while imports into India fall to their lowest levels in over three years, Bloomberg reports.

Vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show that Russian crude volumes averaged 3.27 million barrels per day in the four weeks to February 1, slightly up from the previous period but down roughly 600,000 barrels per day from the pre-Christmas peak. Deliveries to Indian ports dropped to about 1.12 million barrels per day in January, down from 1.2 million in December, marking the lowest monthly figure since November 2022. Meanwhile, shipments to China rose to 1.65 million barrels per day, the highest since March 2024 and the second-highest total since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

India has historically absorbed barrels shunned by European refiners, particularly after the EU implemented a ban on Russian refined products. However, flows could be further impacted if India moves ahead with a trade deal with the United States, which, according to former President Donald Trump’s interpretation, could include halting Russian oil imports. Indian officials have not confirmed any such restriction, while refiners await government guidance.

The build-up of Russian crude at sea continues, exceeding 140 million barrels for a third consecutive week. Some tankers idling near Oman have now headed to India or China, while vessels are increasingly reporting interim destinations such as Suez or Port Sudan, obscuring final destinations.

In terms of value, Russia’s four-week average export receipts rose 6% to $985 million per week in the period to February 1, supported by higher global crude prices amid Middle East tensions and slight increases in shipment volumes. Urals crude prices in the Baltic rose $1.90 to $40.34 per barrel, Black Sea cargoes climbed to $37.84, and Pacific ESPO crude averaged $48.65. Delivered prices in India rose $1.40 to $57.63 per barrel.

“The flows are volatile, affected by weather, maintenance, sanctions, and timing of shipments,” Bloomberg noted. While shipments to China and India show declines, the volume on vessels without a declared final destination has surged, offering Moscow flexibility in redirecting cargoes.

Ship-to-ship transfers and shadow fleet activity continue to obscure the trade, highlighting the challenges of monitoring Russian crude exports under sanctions and price caps.

By Vafa Guliyeva