Chinese leader lacks diplomatic muscle on Iran nuclear talks

Nikkei Asia has published an article arguing that the Chinese leader pledges to help kick-start stalled nuclear deal after meeting his Iranian counterpart. Caliber.Az reprints the article.

Xi Jinping's pledge to help revive the stalled Iran nuclear deal is being cautiously welcomed by Washington, but observers warn that the Chinese leader's success could be "very limited" with Beijing-Tehran ties at a low ebb.

Xi made the comments on Tuesday, after meeting with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi during his three-day official visit to Beijing, where the pair also agreed to beef up economic ties, with Iran hoping to persuade China to restart work on developing a major oil field near the Iraqi border.

"China will continue to take a constructive part in the negotiations on resuming the nuclear deal, support Iran in safeguarding its legitimate rights and interests, and work for an early and proper settlement of the Iranian nuclear issue," Xi said, according to China's official Xinhua News Agency.

A US-led deal in 2015 saw limits placed on Iran's uranium enrichment program that aimed to make it harder for the country to develop nuclear weapons in return for lifting international sanctions. Iran has long said its nuclear program is peaceful.

But three years later, in 2018, then-US President Donald Trump canceled the agreement and reimposed sanctions, saying it had not done enough to curb Tehran's nuclear activities.

China has criticized Washington for withdrawing and insisted that the US should make the first move in reviving the pact, a view echoed by Tehran.

"[China] has a role to play in very clearly signaling to Iran that its destabilizing activities, that its brinkmanship is not going to be rewarded," US Department of State spokesman Ned Price said in response to Xi's remarks.

But Xi's comments were "pretty standard and consistent" with China's position on the Iran deal, said Jacopo Scita, a policy fellow at Bourse and Bazaar Foundation, a Middle East-focused think tank based in the UK.

"It is worth noting that, ahead of Raisi's trip, the US State Department has stressed the hope that China would urge Iran back into the JCPOA," Scita added, referring to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the agreement's formal name. "Rather than expecting direct US-China cooperation, the value of such public comments is to tell Iran that a consensus around the JCPOA as the best nonproliferation option still exists between Washington and Beijing."

Ali Ahmadi, an Iranian foreign policy expert, said fraught Sino-US relations mean that "China would not be an ideal candidate to facilitate" a restart of the talks. Tense ties have been aggravated by recent tit-for-tat accusations that both countries flew spy balloons over each other's territory. 

Complicating matters, Washington has bristled at Iran's growing military ties with Russia in the midst of the Ukraine conflict. The US has also refused to restart nuclear talks after mass protests in Iran over the death of a woman in police custody, so it was "not clear when or if any further negotiations are to be had," Ahmadi told Nikkei Asia.

Mohammad Marandi, an adviser to Iran's negotiating team, put the onus on the US when asked about Xi's remarks: "It is Washington who should make its decision," Marandi told Nikkei this week.

China's role in moving talks forward was likely to be "very limited," but it was in Beijing's strategic interests to help broker stability in a region where it has significant business ties, said Abd al-Rasool Divsalar, an expert on Iran affairs.

Restarting meetings would require "a series of talks and consultations with the Americans, and also European countries," he told Nikkei. "Even if China decides to meddle, it is not clear if it has the necessary diplomatic tools to leverage the American and European side."

Beijing's own relationship with Iran has also been strained, adding another diplomatic challenge. Xi's December visit to Iranian foe Saudi Arabia saw the two describe Tehran as a supporter of regional terrorist groups and proliferator of ballistic missiles and drones.

Their joint statement warned of the need to address "the Iranian nuclear file and destabilizing regional activities," raising eyebrows in Tehran, which is keen to leverage this week's visit to keep China from drifting too far from a long-standing neutrality pledge.

US-led Western sanctions on Tehran will remain a stumbling block to implementation of the China-Iran Comprehensive Strategic Partnership signed in 2021, Scita said. In September, Washington imposed new sanctions on companies involved in Iranian oil exports, including several based in China.

Sinopec, China's state-owned energy giant, has not recommitted to developing the Yadavaran Oil Field in southern Iran, where work is slated to restart after a six-year hiatus. The site has an estimated 3 billion barrels of recoverable oil and could supply energy-hungry China.

But Sinopec, which initially got involved in the oil field back in 2007, put its participation on hold after US and European companies bowed out when Iran was hit with sanctions over the nuclear deal.