Controversial US analyst warns of Bayraktar threat, proposes attack on Türkiye’s nuclear site

Michael Rubin — a former CIA and Pentagon adviser notorious for his staunchly anti-Türkiye stance — has reignited controversy with his latest provocative article, in which he takes aim at the Turkish defense industry, questions the effectiveness of its drones, and goes so far as to suggest Israel should consider targeting Türkiye’s nuclear power plant.

As reported by Türkiye Gazetesi, Rubin’s article, titled “The Armed Forces of Türkiye,” poses a pointed question: “Did Türkiye’s defence industry lose the India-Pakistan war?” Using this framing, Rubin cast doubt on the performance of Türkiye’s widely exported Bayraktar TB2 combat drone in recent global conflicts. But despite his critical tone, his analysis inadvertently acknowledged the global influence and battlefield success of Turkish drone technology.

Rubin conceded the Bayraktar TB2 had played a “game-changing” role in multiple conflicts — from Azerbaijan’s decisive military success in Karabakh to Ukraine’s resistance against Russia’s full-scale invasion. “The Bayraktar TB2 enabled Ukrainians to recover and push back Russian troops,” he wrote, implicitly recognising the drone's effectiveness and the Turkish defence industry’s growing global reputation.

Rubin also claimed that India had downed Turkish-made drones during its latest conflict with Pakistan — an assertion that was swiftly dismissed as misinformation. The Pakistani Ministry of Defence issued a firm denial, stating: “Bayraktar TB2 was not used in the recent conflict with India.”

He further alleged that India was actively seeking help to develop countermeasures against Turkish drones — a testament, however indirect, to their battlefield relevance.

Yet the most explosive part of Rubin’s piece came in his call for Israel to consider a strike on Türkiye’s Akkuyu nuclear power plant. Referencing historical Israeli airstrikes — including the bombing of Iraq’s Osirak reactor in 1981 and the 2007 strike on Syria’s clandestine nuclear site in Deir ez-Zor — Rubin floated the idea that a similar approach could be taken against Türkiye.

He argued that Türkiye should be expelled from NATO, and provocatively suggested that Israel would face little technical difficulty in executing such a strike. “It would be technically easier for Israel to carry out an airstrike against Türkiye,” he wrote, adding that Israeli F-35 fighter jets could hit the Akkuyu facility, which is being built with Russian collaboration.

By Tamilla Hasanova