COP29 and Azerbaijan’s two-vector approach Article by COP29 president-designate in Nikkei Asia

The Japanese Nikkei Asia website has published an article by Azerbaijani Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources, COP29 President Mukhtar Babayev, dedicated to the climate conference to be held in Baku in November 2024.

“Nine years ago, the world came together in unprecedented agreement to respond to the threat of climate change. Under the landmark deal reached in Paris in 2015, parties to the agreement committed to pursue efforts to limit the rise in global temperatures from pre-industrial levels to less than 1.5 C. Yet that target, designed to keep the risks of a warmer world to a minimum, is now under threat,” the article says.

According to the article, the latest forecasts from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) underscore a concerning trend: There is a high likelihood that global warming will exceed the critical 1.5-degree threshold between 2021 and 2040. Alarmingly, temperatures have already surged by 1.1 degrees in just the past decade.

The urgency of the situation cannot be overstated. The IPCC's stark warning demands immediate and decisive action to significantly reduce carbon emissions.

Without such measures, the risk of surpassing the 1.5 C threshold will become increasingly dire, with potentially catastrophic consequences for our planet and its inhabitants. An overshoot would lead to the irreversible loss of homes and habitats. It would be an existential threat to many, especially least developed countries and small island states.

As a developing, climate-vulnerable country, Azerbaijan is also feeling the effects of rising temperatures. Over one-third of the labor force works in agriculture. We now face risks from water shortages and land degradation. These are problems shared by almost four billion people around the world.

As the presidency team prepares for this year's 29th Conference of the Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, or COP29, in Azerbaijan, we are sensing that faith in 1.5 C as the world's fixed objective is waning.

During the team's visits to global capitals, many have asked whether the target is still achievable. Our clear answer is yes, the goal of 1.5 C remains.

That is why the presidency has set out a clear plan to keep 1.5 C within reach and to drive the process forward toward real progress in Baku in November. Our plan for doing so involves a two-track approach that will encourage parties to boost their ambitions while also enabling them to act.

Our first pillar speaks to the fact that last year, all countries were encouraged to ratchet up their ambitions. In the simplest terms, that means devising plans to reduce emissions aligned with the 1.5-degree trajectory in light of different national circumstances.

This is why 2024 is so crucial. We need countries to signal their own determination to act with ambitious nationally determined contributions (NDCs) toward keeping the 1.5-degree target within reach as well as national adaptation plans and transparency reports. As COP29 host, Azerbaijan is leading by example, committing to an NDC that will conform to the 1.5-degree goal.

The cost of such commitments is indeed high. This brings us to the COP29 presidency's second pillar: enabling action.

Finance is one of the key tools that can turn ambition into action. As all parties prepare to raise their ambitions in the next round of NDCs, we need to send clear and strong signals that enhanced financial support will be available for this. This must include not only support for mitigation efforts but also financial assistance for adapting to climate change and building resilience.

All parties must agree on a new, fair and ambitious climate finance goal. Investments also need supportive frameworks, regulations and political strategies. The world needs to increase the overall flow of climate finance several times over. We must address the issues that hold certain countries back from their full ambitions and more effectively unlock climate finance.

The magnitude of this challenge is strikingly evident in Asia, home to many of the world's fastest-growing economies. In this region, the pursuit of a just transition is reliant on capital flows reaching vulnerable communities, sustained support for economic development and multilateral cooperation to address issues such as stranded assets.

This is why the COP29 presidency is working with a wide range of actors, from governments and multilateral financial institutions to the private sector, financial institutions and philanthropists. In high-level dialogues, the presidency team is continuing to try to build momentum for climate-positive action to make sure that protecting the planet pays.

The two pillars of the presidency's plan are mutually reinforcing because there is no single solution to the existential threat posed by climate change. With COP29, we are aiming to foster inclusivity throughout the process, ensuring that diverse perspectives are heard and valued. By prioritizing this, COP29 can achieve outcomes that reflect the needs and aspirations of all stakeholders.

Our hope is that progress during the year can give all parties confidence that we can invest today to save tomorrow. And that we can empower everyone to move forward in solidarity for a green world.