Russia escalating tensions in manner that demands response from Baku Insights from political analyst Farhad Mammadov

Farhad Mammadov, a political analyst and head of the South Caucasus Research Centre, has issued a strong response via his Telegram channel regarding recent Russian military actions, including a targeted strike on Azerbaijani-owned infrastructure in Ukraine. Mammadov characterised the move as a deliberate escalation and warned that such actions cannot go unanswered by Baku.

"Another deliberate strike on SOCAR infrastructure in Ukraine by the Russian Armed Forces..." Mammadov began, referring to the Azerbaijani state oil company's facilities in Ukraine that were reportedly hit by Russian forces, Caliber.Az reports.

He recalled that following previous strikes, Azerbaijan had indicated a potential policy shift — namely, reconsidering its self-imposed restrictions on the supply or sale of weapons to Ukraine. "The logic is simple," Mammadov wrote. "If Moscow does what it has not done during the entire period of its invasion of Ukraine, then Baku will also start doing what it has not done before."

The latest strike coincided with statements from Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk, who recently announced plans for another session of the Russia-Azerbaijan Intergovernmental Commission to be held in Moscow. The last such meeting took place last August in Baku. "Overchuk would not have made such a statement if there had been no agreement from Baku," Mammadov noted, implying that Azerbaijan had demonstrated openness to dialogue despite what he described as a "difficult period" in bilateral relations.

Mammadov also referenced recent remarks by the President of Azerbaijan with American media, in which the head of state appeared to downplay the possibility that the Russian Armed Forces had intentionally targeted an AZAL civilian aircraft. Despite this gesture, another targeted strike on SOCAR infrastructure followed shortly thereafter.

"In parallel," Mammadov added, "targeted arrests of Azerbaijanis are taking place in regions of Russia, and every day Russian public opinion is being stirred up by xenophobic, Azerbaijani-phobic and Nazi statements by second-rate politicians and public figures, which are widely disseminated in the Russian media."

According to Mammadov, these developments highlight the existence of two divergent lines of Russian policy towards Baku — one confrontational and the other seeking engagement. "Every time steps are taken to smooth over sharp corners, provocations are carried out, leading to even greater tension," he wrote. He emphasised, however, that such behaviour, although reminiscent of Iranian tactics, is all the more serious in the context of Russia's highly centralised power structure: "There is only one coordinating centre in Moscow — the Kremlin."

Drawing a parallel with Tehran's multi-track approach to Baku, Mammadov stressed the key difference: "Russia is not Iran... Moscow is more centralised than Iran."

Looking ahead, Mammadov posed a critical question: "Will the intergovernmental commission meet in Moscow?" The answer, he suggested, could determine the trajectory of Azerbaijani-Russian relations.

"If Azerbaijan, in response to the deliberate strikes by Russian occupation forces in Ukraine on SOCAR infrastructure, starts selling weapons to Ukraine," Mammadov warned, "Azerbaijan will be included in the list of countries unfriendly to Russia, with all the consequences that follow from Russian legislation."

He further cautioned that such a move could provoke ethnic pogroms against Azerbaijanis in Russia, possibly sanctioned or carried out by Russian law enforcement agencies. "Moscow is capable of this," he stated bluntly.

Mammadov concluded by suggesting that the recent escalation may be linked to an anticipated diplomatic encounter in Beijing. "Thus, on the eve of possible contact in Beijing, Russia is raising the level of tension, which cannot remain unanswered by Baku. The main question is how and when to respond!"

By Vafa Guliyeva