Eight great powers that will dominate future’s multipolar order Article by 19FortyFive

Driven by a stated ambition to redirect American energy and strategic focus toward the Western Hemisphere, the latest US national security outlook has emphasized that Washington should remain dominant within its own neighborhood—implicitly suggesting that other major powers, such as Russia and China, may expect a certain level of deference in theirs. Yet Russia, China, and the United States are neither the only actors on the global stage nor necessarily the most decisive in shaping future dynamics.

Many analysts agree that the defining buzzword of international relations in 2025 has been “sphere of influence,” prompting the 19FortyFive publication to release its own assessment of the eight great powers it believes will shape global politics for the foreseeable future

Brazil

With a large population, abundant natural resources and a strong geographic position in South America, the article argues that Brazil is structurally positioned to wield substantial influence both regionally and globally.

At the same time, the country continues to grapple with serious structural constraints, including a volatile industrial base, deep income inequality and pronounced regional disparities.

"Brazil has also stood in the shadow of the United States, which has exercised regional hegemony longer than Brazil has existed as an independent entity," the article notes.

Among Brazil’s key strengths are its internationally competitive aerospace sector and a steadily expanding military profile. Its political system has also demonstrated relative resilience, having weathered several internal challenges in recent years.

Looking ahead, Brazil’s most significant uncertainty may stem from shifts in US foreign policy, themselves driven by ongoing political dysfunction in Washington.

China

China’s economic expansion continues to outpace much of the industrialized world, while Beijing has narrowed both qualitative and quantitative military gaps with regional rivals and even with the United States.

Its nuclear arsenal is expanding rapidly, placing China in a position to compete more directly with both Washington and Moscow.

Still, the article highlights several risks that could complicate Beijing’s trajectory, including President Xi Jinping’s purge of senior PLA leadership—an effort that may or may not result in a more efficient and professional military—alongside persistent demographic headwinds linked to the legacy of the One-Child Policy.

European Union

According to the analysis, Germany, France and the United Kingdom would each merit individual inclusion if the European Union were not considered as a bloc—Germany because of its economic strength, and France and the UK due to their global reach and nuclear capabilities.

While acknowledging that "the governing institutions of the European Union remain a project under construction, and gaps between national preferences and supranational institutional demands continue to plague the continent’s long-term political future," the three, together with Italy, still account for four of the world’s ten largest economies.

Given Europe’s technological competitiveness, the article adds that "Russia, and perhaps even the United States, may regret the geopolitical awakening that Europe has undergone over the past four years."

India

India’s vast population made it an important actor soon after independence, though a rigid economic system and a difficult regional environment long constrained New Delhi’s power projection.

After surpassing China in total population in 2023, India does not face the same demographic decline affecting many other major economies.

By carefully balancing relations during the Russia-Ukraine war—maintaining workable ties with both Moscow and Washington while managing a cautious diplomatic relationship with Beijing—the country has strengthened its standing. The article argues that India’s growing technological base and large pool of well-educated workers justify its inclusion among the leading powers.

Japan

Despite being one of the world’s largest economies, Japan’s place among the great powers has been debated for decades, largely because of its limited defense posture following the Second World War.

These constraints historically reduced Tokyo’s strategic reach, but the article suggests that this has begun to change in recent years, even as Japan confronts serious demographic pressures and an outdated financial framework.

Japan remains exceptionally wealthy and continues to lead in several critical technological sectors. As the world’s fourth-largest economy, it retains the capacity to build and sustain a first-tier military—and appears increasingly willing to move in that direction.

Russia

Despite what the article describes as four extremely difficult years following its ill-fated decision to attack Ukraine—an action that has contributed to a demographic catastrophe and increased dependencies on partners such as China, India and North Korea—Russia still controls a vast, resource-rich territory. Moscow has shifted its economy onto a wartime footing and, despite long-term damage, appears unlikely to be forced out of the conflict by purely economic or financial pressures.

Russia also maintains the world’s second most lethal nuclear arsenal. Its energy resources remain globally significant, and the population retains the technical capacity to sustain large-scale industrial mobilization.

Saudi Arabia

The publication argues that Saudi Arabia’s status among major powers has historically rested on two pillars: its ability to influence global oil markets and its capacity to maintain strong ties with the United States and Europe.

Both factors remain relevant today, as the House of Saud continues to exert significant influence over the price and supply of oil—the world’s most important commodity. This leverage provides Riyadh with both regional and global political weight and has long enabled the kingdom to pursue ambitious domestic and foreign policy projects.

Saudi Arabia has also devoted increasing resources to building a modern, technologically advanced military. Though as the experience in Yemen illustrates, progress has not been linear. Even so, the article argues that Riyadh now maintains workable relations with many neighbors and continues to wield influence in Washington. Rapid population growth further distinguishes it from other powers facing demographic decline. Economic diversification—and potentially the pursuit of nuclear capabilities—are likely to shape the kingdom’s future influence.

United States

The United States remains the world’s pre-eminent power, with economic, military and administrative reach spanning the globe. Washington continues to support Ukraine against Russia while simultaneously issuing threats toward Iran and Venezuela, demonstrating an ability to project force globally with relative ease.

The article recalls that when the US floated the idea of seizing Greenland, Europe found itself with limited options beyond risking severe strain in the transatlantic relationship—though Trump ultimately stepped back.

Key vulnerabilities include rising public debt and a deeply polarized political system, both of which have introduced unusual levels of uncertainty. At the same time, the United States no longer enjoys the overwhelming technological edge it possessed during the Cold War era.

By Nazrin Sadigova