EU weighs contingency plans as Hungary election looms

Brussels is preparing for a potential confrontation with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as he seeks another term in office, with EU officials exploring a range of options to prevent the longtime antagonist from obstructing the bloc’s operations. EU countries are considering measures including changes to voting procedures, increased financial penalties, and, in extreme scenarios, even expulsion, EU diplomats said.

“Respect for the rule of law is essential for access to EU funds,” Michael McGrath, European Commissioner for Democracy, Justice, the Rule of Law and Consumer Protection, told POLITICO regarding tougher financial enforcement measures.

Hungary heads to the polls on April 12. Although Orbán’s Fidesz party trails Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party by nine points, EU officials are planning for a scenario in which Orbán retains power. Orbán has repeatedly clashed with EU leaders, most recently blocking a loan for Ukraine approved in December. European Council President António Costa called the move “completely unacceptable,” stating, “Nobody can blackmail the European Council, nobody can blackmail the European institutions.”

Reports that Hungarian officials maintained contact with Moscow during the war in Ukraine, including Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó’s updates to Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov during EU meetings, have further heightened tensions.

“If Orbán wins, the gloves will come off,” said one EU diplomat. Others noted that while some diplomats hope for change, “he’s clever enough — one of the most clever politicians in the room at the European Council — to know where the limits are,” adding that he remains a “Trojan horse” for undermining trust within the bloc.

EU options under discussion include:

Changing Voting Procedures – Expanding qualified majority voting (QMV) into areas normally requiring unanimity, such as foreign policy or the long-term EU budget, to bypass potential obstruction. While three diplomats supported this approach, others caution it could undermine the EU’s foundational principle of unity.

Multi-Speed Europe – Greater use of coalitions of the willing or enhanced cooperation among smaller groups could allow the EU to act despite Hungarian opposition. Ursula von der Leyen has advocated for this in areas such as competitiveness, though diplomats warn these should remain exceptions rather than the norm.

Financial Pressure – Conditionality could suspend EU funds for breaches of the rule of law. McGrath said this mechanism is included in the proposed Multiannual Financial Framework. However, Budapest has already warned it may veto stricter conditionality.

Suspending Voting Rights – Article 7 allows for suspension of a member state’s voting rights, but requires unanimity among the other 26 countries, making it legally and politically difficult.

Expulsion from the EU – Seen as highly unrealistic, using Article 50 or other legal workarounds has been floated in theory but is widely regarded as impractical.

As Hungary’s election approaches, EU leaders are bracing for renewed debates on how to handle Orbán, balancing the bloc’s need for unity with the necessity of effective decision-making.

By Vafa Guliyeva