Eurasianet: Russia waging effective information campaign in the Caucasus

Russian propagandists are succeeding in stoking anti-Western sentiment in the South Caucasus by peddling a meme that closer relations with the United States and European Union will engulf the region in war, according to a recent policy brief issued by a Washington think-tank.

The brief, published by the Digital Forensic Research Lab at the Atlantic Council, analyzes Russia’s effectiveness in promoting “warmongering narratives” in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia in 2023 as part of a wider look at the Kremlin’s information war, Eurasianet reported on March 6.

The underlying message spread in the Caucasus by Russia’s propaganda machine is that alignment with the West is a road to ruin. Russian information operations have “the dual aim of undermining support for Ukraine while dividing societies from within and gaining local influence,” the brief states.

In Armenia, Russian narratives have taken direct aim at Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, whose government in the wake of the country’s defeat in the Nagorno-Karabakh war has downgraded ties with the Kremlin while seeking to strengthen relations with the West.

One narrative “spread mostly in Russian media and Telegram posts, aimed to portray Pashinyan as a traitor.” Other narratives have “exacerbated public anger by disseminating false information and encouraging the overthrow of the government.”

The report also notes that the Georgian Dream-led government in Tbilisi has “expanded its relationship with Russia both politically and economically” over the past two years. This alignment has facilitated the spread of anti-American messaging in the country, underscored by the claim last fall by Georgia’s state security service that USAID was sponsoring a coup conspiracy.

Georgian officials did not produce any evidence to substantiate the claim, which the US embassy asserted was “false and fundamentally mischaracterize[d] the goals” of American assistance to Georgia.

Azerbaijan, which since the start of the Ukraine war has drawn closer to Russia, has amplified narratives about USAID’s supposed subversive aims in the Caucasus.

“The DFRLab found that at least fourteen reports were published about USAID with additional narratives accusing the US agency of financing anti-government activities in Azerbaijan,” the brief stated. “A comparison of the narratives revealed that multiple Azerbaijani outlets used similar or identical text regarding Georgia’s accusation against USAID.”