France's diminishing influence in Africa New era of sovereignty, shifting alliances

The UK-based Middle East Eye has published an article discussing the decline of French influence in Africa. Caliber.Az presents an analysis of the piece for its readers.

The article delves into the waning influence of France in the Sahel region of Africa, highlighting recent developments where countries like Chad and Senegal have severed military ties with Paris. These actions reflect broader dissatisfaction with France’s role in the region, which has increasingly been seen as ineffective and overly paternalistic.

The article stresses that Chad’s announcement on November 28 to end its defence cooperation with France and Senegal’s call for the removal of French military bases mark significant shifts in Africa's geopolitical landscape. Both decisions underscore the growing desire for African nations to assert their sovereignty and reduce their dependence on former colonial powers.

This trend is also evident in the increasing local opposition to French intervention, with frustrations rising over France’s failure to achieve tangible security outcomes, such as in Mali and Burkina Faso.

A key point made in the article is the way France’s long-standing strategy, called Francafrique, of maintaining influence through close relationships with local elites, has been unraveling. The region’s ongoing instability, which has seen military coups and rising jihadist threats, has intensified criticisms of French interventions.

The article notes that while France initially gained positive recognition for its military interventions, particularly in Mali in 2013, its continued presence has led to more questions about its effectiveness. For example, in Burkina Faso, despite being a member of the G5 Sahel security initiative, 40 per cent of its territory was lost to jihadist groups under French-backed operations.

The article further explores the deep-rooted dissatisfaction with France’s economic influence in the region, particularly through the CFA franc, a currency system that many see as a lingering colonial legacy. Calls for the abandonment of this system are gaining traction, particularly as it ties African nations to the Eurozone, which is facing economic stagnation. The author argues that what is often seen as anti-French sentiment is more a call for African countries to regain control over their own affairs.

Furthermore, the article critiques the French political elite’s apparent indifference toward declining influence in the Sahel. The domestic political turmoil in France, including the recent collapse of the government and the rise of the far-right, has diverted attention away from Africa.

The article contends that these internal political struggles have contributed to a lack of coherent strategy in Africa, leading to a loss of connection with former colonies. This "disconnection" is compounded by the reorganization of French diplomacy under President Macron, which has centralized decision-making and sidelined experienced diplomats with regional expertise.

The piece also highlights a shift toward a multipolar world, with countries like Russia, China, and Türkiye increasing their influence in Africa. These nations are offering alternatives to France’s economic and military support, often with fewer strings attached. The article cites how these countries provide infrastructure investments, private military contractors, and affordable drones, creating new options for African governments that are increasingly dissatisfied with French offerings.

In conclusion, the article suggests that France’s influence in the Sahel is on the decline and that it will likely have to significantly reduce its military footprint in Africa. It also predicts that France may turn to private military companies to maintain a presence on the continent, shifting away from direct military engagement. This analysis underscores a broader shift in Africa’s geopolitical orientation, as the region seeks greater autonomy and new partnerships outside the shadow of former colonial powers like France.