Growing concern of nuclear proliferation in US-China relations

An article by The Diplomat explores the escalating challenges of nuclear proliferation and arms control, particularly focusing on US.China relations. It begins with a historical perspective, referencing President John F. Kennedy's concerns about a world with increasing nuclear-armed states, which led to the establishment of critical treaties like the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1968 and the Limited Nuclear Test Ban Treaty in 1963.

While the early years following these treaties showed some promise in disarmament, the current global landscape is marked by a troubling resurgence of nuclear armament, particularly with China’s ambitious nuclear modernization efforts.

The article highlights the stark reality of China potentially increasing its nuclear arsenal to around 1,500 warheads by 2035, raising alarms about a renewed arms race. Previous US administrations have attempted to engage China in arms control discussions, yet these efforts have largely been met with resistance. The Trump administration’s proposal for trilateral arms control talks was rejected by Beijing, which insists that it will not participate until the US and Russia significantly reduce their nuclear stockpiles.

In contrast, the Biden administration has shifted focus towards risk reduction, emphasizing issues such as artificial intelligence management and missile launch notifications, yet these efforts have also stalled. The article notes scholarly discussions suggesting that a mutual agreement on a "No First Use" (NFU) policy could be a starting point for renewed dialogues. However, skepticism remains from the US side, with concerns about the sincerity of China’s NFU posture amid its growing arsenal.

The piece introduces the concept of "non-weaponized deterrence," advocating for a strategic framework where both nations maintain the capability to produce nuclear weapons without actively deploying them. This approach aims to mitigate the arms race risk while acknowledging the realities of nuclear modernization. By focusing on latent capabilities rather than active arsenals, both countries could potentially enhance their security needs and pave the way for sustained dialogue.

Ultimately, the article argues for a new approach to US-China strategic relations, emphasizing the importance of addressing key questions regarding nuclear stockpiles and the verification of any agreements. By prioritizing stability over escalation, a non-weaponized deterrence strategy could foster a more stable US-China relationship, creating a foundation for more substantial discussions in the future.