How Europe can protect Ukraine from Russia Foreign Affairs analysis

A recent Foreign Affairs analysis lays bare the urgent dilemma facing Europe: securing Ukraine against further Russian aggression while navigating a U.S. administration unwilling to provide strong guarantees. In the weeks following President Donald Trump’s summit with Vladimir Putin in Alaska, Moscow launched unprecedented missile and drone strikes on Kyiv, underscoring the fragility of any immediate cease-fire and the high stakes of Ukraine’s security. With Trump ruling out NATO membership and leaving Europe to shoulder most of the burden, European leaders now face the daunting task of providing real, credible security guarantees for Kyiv.

The article emphasizes that Ukraine’s own military strength remains the cornerstone of its defense. Nearly a million troops, battle-hardened through years of conflict, make Ukraine a “steel porcupine,” as Estonia’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas describes. Europe’s challenge is to harden these defenses further, supplying advanced air-defense systems, long-range missiles, and combat aircraft. Financial backing is equally crucial, enabling Ukraine’s defense industry to scale up production: in 2024 alone, Ukraine manufactured 2.5 million artillery shells and two million drones, with ambitious targets set for long-range missiles and additional unmanned systems. European support—through both funding and technology sharing—has been instrumental in revitalizing Ukraine’s industrial base.

Beyond strengthening Kyiv’s military capabilities, Europe must commit its own forces. The article calls for deploying approximately 20,000 troops—mechanized brigades, infantry, mobile air defenses, and high-mobility units—alongside 200 combat aircraft and a substantial naval presence in the Black Sea. While Ukraine can provide most of its frontline defense, these European forces would signal a tangible commitment, reassuring Kyiv that any Russian aggression would meet a coordinated European response. The analysis underscores that such deployments should ideally operate under NATO auspices, even if Ukraine remains outside the alliance, drawing on precedents such as NATO missions in Libya and the Balkans. U.S. involvement would be limited, focused on intelligence, surveillance, and niche capabilities.

Finally, the article stresses the long-term goal: Ukraine’s integration into Euro-Atlantic institutions. EU membership is progressing, though it requires further reforms, while NATO membership—historically promised—remains delayed. The piece argues that membership need not wait for a full peace settlement; just as West Germany joined NATO in 1955 while parts of Germany remained occupied, Ukraine could enter under clear territorial parameters. Doing so would ensure that its security becomes inseparable from Europe’s broader stability, deterring future aggression.

Foreign Affairs makes clear that the war in Ukraine is not merely a regional conflict but a challenge to the post–Cold War European security order. Russia’s ambitions extend beyond Kyiv, seeking to unsettle the peace and prosperity established for millions of Europeans. Europe’s response in the coming months—strengthening Ukraine’s military, committing its own forces, and advancing integration into European institutions—will determine whether Ukraine emerges as a secure, sovereign, and independent bulwark, or remains vulnerable to Moscow’s strategic designs.

By Vugar Khalilov