IAEA chief seeks tougher nuclear checks in Iran, with limited leverage

U.N. nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi flew to Iran on Monday hoping to bolster his agency's oversight of Tehran's atomic activities after various setbacks, but analysts and diplomats say he has limited leverage and must be wary of empty promises.

Then-U.S. President Donald Trump's decision in 2018 to ditch a landmark deal between Iran and major powers that exchanged nuclear restrictions for sanctions relief caused that accord to unravel. Iran has since accelerated its uranium enrichment and reduced cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency.

"The level of inspection (in Iran) is not at the level we should have," Grossi told Sky News last month, per Reuters.

"Given the depth and breadth of the programme, we should have additional monitoring capabilities," said Grossi, who is due to meet officials including chief nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani and Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian.

Iran is enriching uranium to up to 60% purity, close to the around 90% of weapons-grade. If that material were enriched further, it would suffice for two nuclear weapons, according to an official IAEA yardstick.

The IAEA has now lost track of parts of Iran's nuclear programme of which the deal gave it oversight, such as the number of centrifuges -- machines that enrich uranium -- Iran possesses. The IAEA describes this in its reports as losing "continuity of knowledge".

Iranian nuclear chief Mohammad Eslami, speaking about Grossi's visit, said on May 1 that Tehran hoped to strengthen cooperation with the IAEA, Iranian media reported.

The Biden administration's reluctance to seriously confront Iran at the IAEA's 35-nation Board of Governors, which meets again in a month, has fed doubts over Grossi's leverage.

"Is he likely to get anything? I don't know," a diplomat said, echoing widespread scepticism since the Joint Statement.

They added, however, that Grossi would not normally go without a clear sense of what Iran was prepared to agree to.

"Everyone knows this is a game Iran plays ahead of the Board of Governors meetings, where it routinely overpromises to avoid a censure and then underdelivers," analyst Eric Brewer of the Nuclear Threat Initiative said.

"Grossi is well aware of that strategy, too. The key question is whether he can get anything concrete from Iran."