Iceland braces for “existential threat” as vital ocean currents slow down

Iceland’s relatively mild climate is shaped by a vital network of ocean currents that circles the Atlantic, transporting heat northward.

Without this system, the island would be far colder and stormier. As evidence grows that these currents may be heading toward collapse, Iceland’s government has taken the unusual step of designating the threat a national security risk, triggering a high-level effort to prepare for what officials describe as an “existential threat.”

The collapse of this temperature-regulating system is frequently cited by scientists as the climate impact that frightens them most, according to an article by CNN.

“Our climate, economy and security are deeply tied to the stability of the ocean currents around us,” said Jóhann Páll Jóhannsson, Iceland’s Minister for Environment, Energy and Climate.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation — the AMOC — is a looping system of currents that functions like a giant conveyor belt, pulling warm water from the Southern Hemisphere and tropics to the north, where it cools, sinks, and returns southward.

A growing body of research indicates the AMOC is slowing as global warming alters the delicate balance of heat and salinity that drives it. While scientists have not reached consensus on the likelihood or timing of a collapse, the article notes that some studies project it could occur this century.

A shutdown of the AMOC “cannot be considered a low likelihood risk anymore in view of the evolving science over the past years,” said Stefan Rahmstorf, a physical oceanographer and climatologist at Potsdam University who has long studied the AMOC.

The consequences would be catastrophic, bringing major global weather and climate disruptions: rising sea levels in parts of Europe and the United States, destabilized monsoon systems in Asia and Africa, and a deep freeze across Europe, with sea ice potentially advancing as far south as the United Kingdom.

Iceland “would be close to the center of a serious regional cooling,” meaning the country could find itself encircled by sea ice, Rahmstorf told CNN.

It’s an “an existential threat,” Jóhannsson told CNN. The AMOC stabilizes Iceland’s weather, and its collapse could cripple infrastructure, transport, and key industries such as fishing, he said.

Jóhannsson briefed the government on the latest science after research published in August raised “grave concerns” over the AMOC’s future. In September, Iceland’s National Security Council designated the potential collapse as a national security risk — the first time any climate impact has received that status in the country.

The decision “reflects the seriousness of the issue and ensures that the matter gets the attention it deserves,” Jóhannsson said. In practice, the designation will trigger a coordinated, high-level government response to assess the danger and determine how to prevent or mitigate the worst outcomes, he added.

Iceland’s move signals a broader shift in how the country views climate threats, Jóhannsson said.

“What we do know is that the current climate might change so drastically that it could become impossible for us to adapt,” he said. “In short, this is not just a scientific concern — it’s a matter of national survival and security.”

By Nazrin Sadigova