Media: Global beef prices set to rise as Brazil faces shrinking cattle supply

Cheap beef may soon become a thing of the past, as Brazil, one of the world’s largest suppliers of cattle, enters a period of tightening supply that could push global prices higher, Bloomberg reports.

For the past two years, Brazil’s beef production surged, fuelling exports and keeping costs lower than in other regions. Ample herds encouraged ranchers to send more animals to slaughter, while countries such as the US, grappling with high food costs, relied on cheaper imports.

However, that cycle is now shifting. Rising calf prices in Brazil indicate ranchers are beginning to retain female cattle—a process known as heifer retention—to rebuild herds. This reduces the number of animals sent to slaughter and marks the start of a tightening supply phase, which analysts warn could last several years.

“We are coming out of the phase of excess, and the phase of scarcity hasn’t even begun,” said César de Castro Alves, manager of agronomic consultancy at Itau BBA bank.

The reversal comes as US beef prices remain high, driven by historically low domestic herds and expensive feed costs. President Donald Trump has made lowering beef prices a priority, easing some tariffs and pledging to increase imports. Yet with Brazil’s slaughter rates expected to slow, consumers may see little relief.

Analysts at consultancy Datagro forecast Brazil’s cattle slaughter to fall 5.3% next year, following two consecutive years of growth. Other major exporters, including the US and Australia, are also in early stages of herd recovery, further tightening global supply.

Despite the slowdown, Brazil is expected to maintain its position as the world’s largest beef exporter. Rabobank predicts record overseas sales of 4.4 million tons in 2026, though shipments are likely to come at higher prices due to sustained international demand.

“Restricted supplies next year can make the market really firm, because international demand remains strong,” said Paulo Mustefaga, executive director of Brazil’s meatpacking association Abrafrigo.

By Aghakazim Guliyev