Indian Ocean tensions rise as China expands maritime influence

The article from the South China Morning Post discusses the shifting geopolitical tensions between China and India, particularly moving from their disputed Himalayan border to the Indian Ocean.

The recent meeting between Indian and Chinese diplomats has somewhat eased the border tensions, but the Indian Ocean is emerging as the next potential flashpoint due to strategic and security concerns.

In July, Indian and Chinese foreign ministers, S. Jaishankar and Wang Yi, met on the sidelines of an ASEAN meeting and agreed to work towards de-escalating tensions along their shared Himalayan border. This meeting, which followed Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Russia, suggests that Moscow may have influenced both nations to calm their border disputes. Despite these diplomatic efforts, the Indian Ocean remains a contentious area. China’s strategic port investments and ship deployments in the region are crucial for its oil supply, raising alarms in New Delhi.

China has established strategic ports and infrastructure across the Indian Ocean, from the Arabian Sea to the Strait of Malacca, securing routes for 80% of its crude oil imports. This network, referred to as the “string of pearls,” is perceived by India as an encirclement. India, viewing the Indian Ocean as its backyard, is concerned about China's expanding influence, especially given its own lagging investments in the region. Analysts term this strategic vulnerability the “Malacca Dilemma,” highlighting how India and the US could blockade China’s vital supply routes during a major conflict.

The article also highlights the disparity in naval capabilities and geopolitical influence. China’s navy is growing, but without a naval base in the Indian Ocean, its ships remain vulnerable. India, despite having a smaller fleet, benefits from geographic proximity and alliances, such as the Quad (comprising the US, Japan, and Australia), to counterbalance China's influence. This strategic partnership could be crucial in maintaining stability in the region.

Furthermore, the piece touches upon China’s alleged use of “research vessels” for military purposes, raising suspicions in Delhi. Incidents involving these vessels near India’s coast have intensified concerns about China’s intentions. Despite diplomatic efforts, including a temporary moratorium by Sri Lanka on foreign research ships, the underlying tensions remain.

In conclusion, while diplomatic engagements have temporarily soothed border tensions, the Indian Ocean presents a complex and evolving strategic challenge for both India and China. The potential for conflict hinges on China's future actions and willingness to engage constructively with its neighbours. As both nations navigate these turbulent waters, their ability to manage competing interests and avoid escalation will be crucial in maintaining regional stability.