ING Group forecasts steady growth for Azerbaijan through 2027

The Netherlands’ largest banking group, ING Group, forecasts Azerbaijan’s economy to grow by 1.6% in 2025, 2.8% in 2026, and 2% in 2027.

Compared with previous estimates, GDP growth for the current year has been revised up by 0.1 percentage points, while the forecasts for 2026–2027 remain unchanged, Caliber.Az reports via ING.

As a result, Azerbaijan’s average annual GDP growth for 2025–2027 is projected at 2.13%.

According to the bank, quarterly forecasts include 2.5% growth in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025; 4% in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026; 2.5% in the second quarter (Q2); 3.5% in the third quarter (Q3); and 1% in the fourth quarter (Q4).

For 2027, economic growth is projected at 0.5% in the first quarter (Q1); 1.5% in the second quarter (Q2); 2.5% in the third quarter (Q3); and 3.5% in the fourth quarter (Q4).

Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Economy forecasts GDP growth of 3% in 2025, 2.9% in 2026, and 3.3% in 2027.

International rating agencies differ in their estimates: S&P Global expects 2% annual growth in 2025–2026, Fitch Ratings forecasts 3.5% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026, while Moody’s expects 2.5% per year.

The International Monetary Fund predicts 3% growth in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026, while the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development projects 2% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026.

The Asian Development Bank forecasts growth of 2.4% and 2% over the next two years, and the World Bank expects Azerbaijan’s economy to grow by 2.6% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026.

Azerbaijan’s economy grew by 4.1% in 2024 and by 1.3% in January–August 2025.

By Jeyhun Aghazada