ISW: Moscow plans full military pullout from Syria by February 2025

Russian forces have largely vacated their positions across Syria, with the exception of the Khmeimim airbase and the Tartus port.

According to a new report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Moscow is now planning for a full military withdrawal from the country by February 2025, per Caliber.Az.

Citing a December 23 report from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence's Main Directorate of Military Intelligence (GUR), the ISW confirmed that Russian forces have completed the withdrawal from most interior positions in Syria, retaining only their presence at the two strategic locations along the coast: Khmeimim and Tartus.

The GUR also noted that the last confirmed Russian military presence at the Kamyshly military base in Hasakeh province was observed on December 18. It is believed that Russian forces vacated this base shortly afterwards.

While Russian forces continue to maintain a foothold in Syria's coastal regions, ISW analysts suggest that there are signs Moscow is preparing for a more substantial withdrawal. Visual evidence, as well as multiple reports from within Syria, point to a potential complete pullback from these coastal strongholds as well.

The ISW also referenced reports from Ukrainian intelligence regarding a Russian cargo ship that had broken down in the Mediterranean Sea on December 23. According to the GUR, the ship was en route to Syria, likely to evacuate Russian equipment and weapons from Tartus, further indicating Russia's efforts to scale down its military presence.

Further complicating the situation, Ukrainian intelligence has revealed that Moscow is in ongoing discussions with the new Syrian authorities about a potential Russian departure. Sources within Syria suggest that the Syrian government may demand the complete withdrawal of Russian forces from both Khmeimim and Tartus by February 20, 2025.

Russian Presidential aide Yuriy Ushakov confirmed that Moscow continues to maintain diplomatic and military channels with the new Syrian leadership, following the significant shift in power dynamics within the country.

The departure of Russian forces comes in the wake of a major political upheaval in Syria. On November 27, opposition groups launched a large-scale offensive in Aleppo and Idlib provinces. By December 7, they had taken control of several key cities, including Aleppo, Hama, Daraa, and Homs.

On December 8, opposition forces entered Damascus, leading to the resignation and flight of President Bashar al-Assad. Following Assad’s departure, the opposition established a transitional government, with Mohammed al-Bashir, the head of the Idlib-based Salvation Government, being appointed as the leader of Syria's interim government, which is set to rule until March 2025.

As the geopolitical landscape in Syria continues to shift, Russia’s plans to withdraw its military presence signal a significant turning point in the ongoing Syrian conflict. However, much remains uncertain about the future role of foreign powers in the region and the stability of the new Syrian government.

By Tamilla Hasanova