ISW: Putin revives imperialistic narrative about Russia's fighting for "historic frontiers" Former Soviet countries at risk

Russian President Vladimir Putin revived his imperialistic narrative that Russia is fighting for Russia's "historic frontiers" on February 22.

Putin gave a four-minute speech at the rally for the Defenders of the Fatherland Day in Moscow, stating that there is currently "a battle going on for [Russia's] historical frontiers, for [Russian] people", Caliber.Az reports citing the ISW's (Institute for the Study of War) updated assessment of the Russian military campaign.

The analysts say that Putin had similarly called territories adjacent to Russia "[Russian] historical land" when announcing Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Putin did not offer other notable remarks on the war's progress or discuss concrete frontline objectives. The concept of Russia's "historical frontiers" could be used to justify aggression against almost any of Russia's neighbors, as well as Moldova and the Central Asian states that do not share a border with Russia, since all of them contain territory that belonged at one point to either the Soviet Union or the Russian Empire or both.

Putin's speech followed his February 21 decree revoking his May 2012 edict on Russia's position on Moldovan territorial integrity. 

Putin revoked his 2012 orders to the Russian Foreign Ministry (MFA) to firmly uphold the principles of the United Nations Charter—which require the development of friendly relations between states on the basis of equality, respect for their sovereignty and territorial integrity—and Russia's commitment to actively seek ways to resolve the Transnistria issue on the basis of respect for Moldovan territorial integrity.

The revocation of the 2012 decree does not indicate that Putin intends to attack Moldova—an undertaking for which he lacks military capability—although it does point toward an escalation in his ongoing efforts to undermine the Moldovan state, the think-tank analysts say.

Key Takeaways.

• Ukrainian intelligence officials continue to assess that Russia lacks the combat power and resources necessary to sustain its new offensive operations in Ukraine.
• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin directly accused the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) of mistreating Wagner forces, igniting intense backlash in the information space and supporting ISW's prior assessments of a growing Wagner-MoD fissure.
• US State Department Spokesperson Ned Price stated that the US government is concerned about the potential strengthening of Russia-China relations.
• Russian forces are likely attempting to increase the tempo of their offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Lyman line.
• Some Russian sources refuted other Russian claims about the intensification of offensive operations in western Luhansk Oblast.
• Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks throughout the Donetsk Oblast front line and secured marginal territorial gains around Bakhmut.
• Russian and occupation authorities continue to publicly indicate that Russian forces are focusing on defensive operations in the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast and Crimea.
• US intelligence officials stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin may mobilize significantly more Russian personnel.