Key climate promises could cut nearly 1C of warming, new analysis says

Sticking to three major climate commitments already agreed by governments could reduce global heating by almost 1C and give the world a realistic chance of preventing catastrophic climate breakdown, according to new analysis released at the Cop30 summit in Belém, Brazil.

Countries have pledged to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030, double the rate of energy efficiency improvements, and make significant reductions in methane emissions. The Climate Action Tracker coalition, which published the findings, says delivering on these goals would shave 0.9C off projected temperature increases this century — a potential breakthrough as talks continue on how to close the widening gap between climate commitments and real-world emissions, The Guardian outlines. 

Bill Hare, chief executive of Climate Analytics, one of the organisations behind the report, called the potential impact unprecedented.

“If [governments] achieve this by 2035, it would be a gamechanger, quickly slowing the rate of warming in the next decade and lowering global warming this century from 2.6C to about 1.7C.”

A drop to 1.7C puts the world significantly closer to the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5C above preindustrial levels. Hare said: “The [findings] are really quite stunning. It would be the first big improvement, and a major step forward.”

Among G20 countries alone, fully implementing the three measures could cut greenhouse gas emissions by 18 billion tonnes by 2035 — reducing the pace of warming by one-third over the next decade and by half by 2040.

However, analysts stress that the promises remain far from fulfilled. While global investment in renewables surpassed $2 trillion last year, outpacing spending on fossil fuels, progress has been uneven. China’s renewable sector has expanded rapidly, and India reached its renewable targets five years ahead of schedule. Yet other major economies continue to rely heavily on coal, oil and gas.

Methane reduction remains the biggest challenge. Although more than 160 governments have joined the Global Methane Pledge to cut emissions 30% by 2030, methane output has continued to rise. Many countries have underreported emissions, and efforts to capture methane from oil and gas infrastructure remain limited. Russia, China and the United States are among the largest emitters.

“Governments need to start right now [on all the promises],” Hare warned. “The real question is political: can governments bring themselves to resist pressure from the fossil fuel industry, and will richer countries agree to accelerate financial support for the countries that need it?”

Stopping deforestation — another major climate pledge — has also lagged, despite its central role in protecting carbon sinks that absorb CO₂ from the atmosphere.

The pressure is intensifying in Belém, where governments are responding to evidence that current national climate plans would allow temperatures to rise to around 2.5C, far above the 1.5C limit they committed to in Paris. Negotiators were expecting a draft text from the Brazilian Cop30 presidency outlining paths to accelerate action, including a long-debated “transition away from fossil fuels” promised at Cop28.

Some countries want to begin shaping a roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels, though others — notably major petrostates — are expected to resist.

Niklas Höehne of the NewClimate Institute said that meeting the three existing targets would itself drive a major shift.

“The changes in the energy system would be so significant from tripling renewables, doubling efficiency, reducing methane, that they would actually trigger the transition away from fossil fuels.”

He added: “If you look at the numbers, it shows really significant reductions in fossil fuel use by the mid-2030s from these measures. So that would also go a long way towards implementing the agreement done in the first world stock take to transition away from fossil fuels.”

By Sabina Mammadli