Latvia warns Russia could target Baltics by 2028

Russia has gained an edge in drone warfare over NATO countries and could seek to exploit a “window of opportunity” by the end of 2028 to invade the Baltic states, Latvia’s military chief has warned.

General Kaspars Pudāns, commander of Latvia’s armed forces, told the Financial Times that Moscow’s advantage lies not in superior technology but in its capacity to manufacture drones at scale and rapidly adapt them during wartime.

“Their advantage is the scalability of drones,” Pudāns said. “They are able to quickly replenish the stocks, to have big numbers on a big scale.”

He said any direct conflict between Moscow and NATO could begin in the Baltic region, which he described as difficult to defend due to Russia’s proximity and the alliance’s gradual pace in reinforcing its eastern flank.

The general warned that Russia could exploit Europe’s slow rearmament, with most modernisation programmes not expected to take effect until around 2029.

“If I were in the Kremlin, I would say if we do something, then we should do it by the end of 2028,” Pudāns said.

NATO members last year agreed to raise defence-related spending to 5 per cent of GDP by 2035, including 3.5 per cent for core military budgets and 1.5 per cent for dual-use infrastructure such as bridges and railways.

Other regional officials have also expressed concern that Russia could test NATO’s eastern flank earlier than previously expected.

A senior defence official from a NATO frontline state said: “If you’re [Russia’s Vladimir] Putin, there could be a couple of reasons to try something earlier. One is that [US President Donald] Trump is only in office for another two years, and you don’t know if what comes after him is as constructive.”

“The second is that all European countries are ramping up defence spending so it may make sense to move before then.”

Pudāns said Russia’s battlefield experience in Ukraine had given it a critical advantage. “They are innovating and developing new solutions faster and testing them on the battlefield,” he said.

In contrast, NATO forces have fewer drones and limited combat experience. In a British Army exercise simulating a war in Estonia, commanders reportedly assumed drone supplies would last less than a week.

While NATO remains conventionally stronger, particularly in air power, Pudāns warned of continued gaps in industrial capacity and deployment speed along the eastern flank. He added: “We live with the assumption that aggression in some form could happen already tonight.”

By Vafa Guliyeva