Media: New risks for Armenia after joining NATO

The Armenian authorities’ actions to change the foreign policy vector have become overt, and Yerevan has decided to play openly, without hiding its pro-Western tricks.

The West frequently made statements that Armenia, which is not a NATO member, should either apply for NATO membership or become the main ally of the US, Caliber.Az reports citing an analytical article published on the Armenian Lurer website.

“Of course, there is such a precedent, and this precedent is Israel. However, proceeding from the recent events in the Middle East, the US does not intend to render military assistance to its natural ally. The US Department of State said that the US is ready to help diplomatically, allocate money, and supply military equipment, but it does not intend to send the US military to the Middle East,” the article said.

According to the article, the Armenian authorities chose a pro-Western vector and this raises a number of questions, the main one of which is Armenia’s profit if it joins NATO. To answer this question, it is necessary to dispel a number of myths. Let's talk about the facts. NATO member states, according to the logic and charter of this alliance, do not fight each other and do not pose any threat to each other's security. Is this so? Surely not. The conflict between Greece and Albania, which escalated in 2021 when Greece expanded its territorial waters in the Ionian Sea from 6 to 12 miles, testifies to this. Therefore, there is no guarantee that even if Armenia joins NATO, security problems will disappear immediately.

“Proceeding from Chapter 4 of the NATO Charter, in case of military aggression against NATO member states, the alliance is entitled to respond to this aggression but has no moral or legal obligation to take this step. In other words, there is no guarantee that in case of military action against a NATO member state, the alliance will render military assistance to that member state,” the article said.

According to the article, two NATO members, the US and Türkiye, are waging a remote war against each other in Syria. Thus, the US is providing the Kurdistan Workers' Party with weapons, which the Turks consider a terrorist organisation and with which they have constant armed conflicts. In other words, one NATO member state is providing factions fighting against another NATO member state with weapons.

“There is another important issue. Did the application for NATO membership save us from military conflicts? The examples of Georgia and Ukraine prove the opposite. At a summit in Romania’s capital 11 years ago, the alliance promised Georgia and Ukraine a membership plan. The Russian-Georgian five-day war began a few months later, in August. Russian troops appeared on the outskirts of Tbilisi, and at the end of the war, Moscow recognised the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which had separated from Georgia. Ukraine lost Crimea in 2014, and today it risks losing much more territory. NATO has not taken any practical steps towards the membership of Kyiv and Tbilisi, it just made the promises,” the article said.

According to the article, there's another problem that NATO lobbyists often forget to talk about. NATO membership is quite expensive for member states. Unfortunately, many NATO member states have failed to raise defence spending to at least two per cent of GDP this year, which is a mandatory requirement for NATO member states. According to NATO's calculations, only about a third of states (11 countries) will exceed two per cent in 2023. Armenia, living off external loans, is unlikely to be able to finance such expenses. Moreover, expert on foreign and defence policy, retired French army general Dominique Delawarde, in an interview with Russian journalists several months ago, expressed the opinion that problems in the economy and social sphere, as well as a lack of investments in the defence complex, will not allow NATO member states to enter into an arms race with Russia.

“As we see, proceeding from the facts, the benefits promised in case of NATO membership are predominantly of a propaganda nature, as we see a completely different situation, when member states face with military-political, security, and economic problems and are forced to solve these problems. Therefore, joining NATO will not bring any real benefit to Armenia, but will create new security risks that will be like a sword of Damocles for Armenia and the Armenian people,” the article says.