Media: Russia’s gasoline prices surpass US levels amid divergent market trends

Retail gasoline prices in the U.S. have fallen below the psychological mark of $3 per gallon, reaching their lowest level since 2021, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. Gasoline prices in the U.S. have been declining for more than a year, while in Russia they have been rising continuously, and at a rate noticeably faster than overall inflation.

In the U.S., crude oil prices account for about half of the final retail price of gasoline. In Russia, however, the share of crude oil in the final price does not exceed 10%, experts note. Meanwhile, the share of taxes and fees in gasoline prices in Russia reaches 60%, writes Nezavisimaya Gazeta.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), as of December 1, 2025, the average retail price of regular gasoline stood at $2.98 per gallon (about 3.785 litres). Adjusted for inflation, this is the lowest average gasoline price for American consumers since February 2021. Gasoline prices vary significantly across the United States. Thus, the lowest prices are recorded on the Gulf Coast, at $2.55 per gallon, while on the West Coast the price of a gallon exceeds $4.

The main reason for the decline in gasoline prices in the United States is the drop in global crude oil prices. The price of “black gold” is the key component in fuel pricing in the U.S. Crude oil accounts for about half of the final retail gasoline price. By comparison, taxes make up only 17% of the cost, according to the EIA. Thus, falling oil prices have a direct impact on gas station prices.

Meanwhile, oil on global markets is trading near multi-month lows — Brent is holding around $63 per barrel. “The main pressure factor is the growing expectation of an oversupply amid modest seasonal demand. Geopolitical risks are still preventing the market from collapsing further, but the balance is clearly shifting in favour of sellers,” notes Alpha Capital portfolio manager Dmitry Skryabin.

In addition, in the U.S. fuel prices traditionally decline after the end of the summer driving season. During 2025, prices at gas stations have remained generally stable. Another factor behind the decline has been stagnant gasoline demand, which is lagging behind 2024 levels, the EIA reported.

A number of analysts forecast that low crude oil prices will continue to restrain retail fuel prices domestically. JPMorgan Chase, for example, has noted that if OPEC does not intervene to curb excess supply, the price of Brent crude is likely to fall to $50 per barrel by the fourth quarter of 2026. By the end of 2026, a barrel could cost around $40. The growing supply surplus is expected to push the average Brent price down to just $42 per barrel, with prices potentially falling to $30 per barrel by year-end.

The opposite pricing trend is observed in Russia. There, retail gasoline prices are not directly dependent on global oil price dynamics. For now, retail prices in Russia are declining only within the margin of statistical error. Thus, in the last week of November, consumer gasoline prices in Russia fell by a modest 0.26% week-on-week. However, since the beginning of 2025, gasoline prices in Russia had risen by 11.2% as of December 1, which is more than double the overall inflation rate for the same period (5.27%). On a year-on-year basis, gasoline prices increased by 12.66%, compared to annual inflation of 6.61%.

As of early December, the nationwide average price of gasoline in Russia stood at 64.87 rubles ($0.85) per litre. The price of AI-92 was 61.68 rubles ($0.82) per litre, AI-95 cost 66.92 rubles ($0.87), and AI-98 reached 88.44 rubles ($1.15) per litre. As a result, gasoline in Russia is now more expensive than in the U.S. In dollar terms, the price of motor gasoline in Russia as of early December amounted to about $3.23 per gallon. For AI-92, the price was $3.08 per gallon, and for AI-95, $3.33 per gallon.

Experts note that the share of taxes and duties in the price of gasoline in Russia is significantly higher. “Various taxes typically account for more than 60% of the final pump price. Other major cost components include the price of crude oil, refining expenses, and the operating costs of gas stations,” said Sergey Kaufman, analyst at Finam. In contrast, in the United States, the share of taxes in the gasoline price is only 17%.

Thus, gasoline pricing in Russia is deliberately quasi-market in nature.