Media: Tehran stands firm as US, Israel hope for mass uprising

As the United States and Israel prepared for war with Iran, Mossad chief David Barnea presented Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with a plan to ignite widespread unrest inside Iran. Within days of the conflict’s onset, Barnea predicted that Mossad could galvanize opposition forces, triggering riots that might even topple Tehran’s government. The proposal was also shared with senior Trump administration officials in Washington in mid-January, The New York Times reports.

Netanyahu endorsed the plan, despite skepticism from senior US officials and other Israeli intelligence agencies. Both he and President Donald Trump viewed the approach optimistically, hoping that targeted assassinations and intelligence operations could provoke a mass uprising to end the war swiftly. “Take over your government: It will be yours to take,” Trump told Iranians in his initial speech after the conflict began, urging citizens to seek shelter first.

Three weeks into the conflict, however, no uprising has emerged. US and Israeli intelligence assessments indicate that while Iran’s government is under pressure, it remains intact. Fear of the military and police has dampened prospects for rebellion or cross-border incursions by ethnic militias.

“You can’t do revolutions from the air,” Netanyahu said during a news conference. “There has to be a ground component as well. There are many possibilities for this ground component, and I take the liberty of not sharing with you all those possibilities.” He added, “It is too early to tell if the Iranian people will exploit the conditions we are creating for them to take to the streets. I hope that will be the case. Ultimately, it will depend only on them.”

The Israeli plan also included supporting Iranian Kurdish militias based in northern Iraq, though American officials later warned against their involvement, fearing civilian casualties and political complications. Kurdish leaders and Turkey opposed such action, noting it could unify Iranians against separatist forces rather than incite revolt.

Former officials and analysts have questioned Mossad’s optimism, arguing that widespread protests in Iran are unlikely while the country faces intense airstrikes and internal security measures. “A lot of protesters are not coming into the street because they’ll get shot,” said Nate Swanson, a former US State Department official.

Despite the setbacks, Israeli officials say efforts to encourage internal resistance continue. “I think that we need boots on the ground, but they’ve got to be Iranian boots,” said Yechiel Leiter. “And I think they’re coming.”

By Vafa Guliyeva