North Korea accuses South Korea of drone incursion, heightening tensions

As tensions escalate on the Korean Peninsula, North Korea has accused South Korea of flying drones into its capital, Pyongyang, raising fears of potential conflict.

The North claims these drones dropped propaganda leaflets over Pyongyang, labeling the act a provocation that could potentially lead to "armed conflict and even war", Caliber.Az reports via foreign media.

In response to these allegations made on Friday, Pyongyang ordered its border troops to be ready to fire. South Korea stated it would respond accordingly, warning that any threat to its citizens would mark "the end of the North Korean regime." North Korea followed through on earlier threats by destroying parts of two roads connecting it to South Korea. The next day, it announced that 1.4 million young North Koreans had applied to enlist or rejoin the military. These incidents are part of a series of exchanges that have heightened tensions between the two Koreas, especially since North Korean leader Kim Jong Un declared South Korea as his regime's top enemy in January.

On October 11, North Korea's foreign ministry accused South Korea of conducting nighttime drone flights over two weeks, claiming the drones dispersed "inflammatory rumors and rubbish." Kim Yo Jong, the sister of the North Korean leader, warned of "horrible consequences" for any future incursions, alleging that "military gangsters" from the South were behind the provocations. North Korea has released unclear images purportedly showing the drones and the leaflets, though these claims remain unverified. 

While South Korea initially denied the drone allegations, its Joint Chiefs of Staff later stated they could neither confirm nor deny the claims from Pyongyang. Speculation exists that activists, rather than the South Korean military, may have been responsible for the drone flights, as they have previously used balloons to send similar materials into North Korea. Park Sang-hak, leader of the Free North Korea Movement Coalition, denied the North's allegations, asserting, "We did not send drones to North Korea." Kim Jong Un convened with the head of the army, military leaders, the ministers of state security and defense, and other top officials, according to North Korea's state news agency KCNA. During this meeting, he outlined the "direction of immediate military action" and tasked officials with overseeing the "operation of the war deterrent and exercising the right to self-defense." Lee Sung-joon, a spokesperson for South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff, indicated that North Korea might engage in "small-scale provocations," such as minor explosions on inter-Korean roads. This was followed by explosions on the symbolic Gyeongui and Donghae roads. 

Although these roads have been closed for some time, their destruction sends a clear message that Kim is not interested in negotiating with the South, analysts suggest. In response to the explosions, the South Korean military reported that it had fired weapons on its side of the border as a demonstration of force and increased surveillance of the North. Subsequently, the Gyeonggi Province government, which surrounds Seoul, designated 11 inter-Korean border areas as "danger zones" to deter the dissemination of anti-North propaganda leaflets. Vice Governor Kim Sung-joong emphasized in a media briefing that scattering leaflets could provoke military conflict and endanger the safety of local residents, especially as inter-Korean relations deteriorate. 

Analysts interpret the drone incident as a move by North Korea to bolster internal support by portraying an escalating threat from the South. This strategy includes referring to the South as "separate states" while omitting terms like "compatriots" and "unification," according to Professor Kang Dong-wan from Dong-a University. He noted that the North Korean regime relies on fear politics and needs an external enemy to strengthen loyalty. The ongoing exchanges between the two Koreas resemble a "chicken game," with neither side willing to yield. 

Professor Kim Dong-yup from the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul pointed out that neither side is ready to make concessions, and given the mutual distrust, Seoul must carefully consider how to manage the crisis. However, analysts agree that immediate resolution seems unlikely. "I doubt the situation will escalate to the level of war. North Korea is using military confrontation to enhance internal unity," said Professor Kang. “I question North Korea's capability to initiate a full-scale war. The regime is fully aware of the dire repercussions such a conflict would entail,” added Professor Kim. According to Professor Nam Sung-wook, who teaches North Korean studies at Korea University in Seoul, the recent dispute over alleged drone flights will likely remain a "verbal confrontation."

He noted that both Seoul and Pyongyang understand the costs of a full-scale war, stating, "the likelihood of actually deploying nuclear weapons is low." The two Koreas are technically still in a state of war, as no peace treaty was signed at the conclusion of the Korean War in 1953. Historically, the reunification with the South has been a central, albeit increasingly unrealistic, tenet of North Korea's ideology, a stance Kim abandoned in January. 

Under Kim's leadership, North Korea has fostered closer ties with Russia and Vladimir Putin, putting it at odds with the US and its allies, including South Korea. Additionally, North Korea maintains long-standing relationships with China, its most crucial ally. Following the drone incident, a spokesperson for China's foreign ministry urged all parties to "avoid further escalation of conflicts" on the peninsula. Tensions are rising on the Korean Peninsula as the US presidential campaign reaches its climax.

By Naila Huseynova