NYT: Iran recalibrates foreign policy following US election, pursues negotiations with Israel, West

In November 2024, Iran shifted its diplomatic approach, moving from aggressive rhetoric to more conciliatory actions, including efforts to de-escalate tensions with Israel and engage in talks with Western powers.

This shift appears to be influenced by a combination of internal and external factors, including the uncertain foreign policy landscape following the US presidential election and the mounting economic and military pressures Iran is facing domestically and regionally, Caliber.Az reports per The New York Times (NYT).

Iran's diplomatic pivot began after the November 5 US election, when Donald Trump was re-elected. Iranian officials, concerned about Trump's unpredictable policies—particularly his "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran—decided to recalibrate their strategy.

They were wary of worsening relations with a president who had previously pulled the US out of the nuclear deal and imposed severe sanctions on Iran. This led to Iran’s decision to pause military escalation, including planned attacks on Israel, to avoid provoking the incoming administration.

Another major factor in Iran’s recalibration was the significant losses Hezbollah, its key regional ally, suffered in Lebanon. Despite Hezbollah's central role in Iran’s strategy, the group's weakened position following Israeli attacks raised concerns about Iran's influence in the region.

The losses also sparked unrest among Hezbollah’s Shia Lebanese supporters, who felt abandoned by Iran as their homes were destroyed. These domestic pressures prompted Iran to act more cautiously.

In mid-November, Iranian officials engaged in high-level talks with Western powers, including a meeting between Iran’s UN ambassador and Elon Musk, a key figure in Donald Trump’s circle, to explore ways to reduce tensions. Despite internal conservative opposition to these talks, they signaled a shift in Iran's stance toward negotiation rather than confrontation.

Iran's decision to engage diplomatically also reflects internal pressures, including an ongoing economic crisis marked by a weakening currency and looming energy shortages. These challenges have further emboldened reformist factions within the government, who argue for greater engagement with the West to alleviate economic strain. In response, President Masoud Pezeshkian, a moderate, has pushed for economic reforms and a more cooperative foreign policy.

On the regional front, Iran responded to the military setbacks of Hezbollah and rising discontent among its Shia Lebanese base by pressuring the group to agree to a cease-fire with Israel. Iranian officials, including Ali Larijani, a senior advisor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, conveyed Tehran's message to Hezbollah leaders in Beirut, urging them to accept the cease-fire.

This led to a breakthrough in negotiations and a reduction in hostilities along the Israeli-Lebanese border.

Iran’s shift in tone is also linked to its growing desire to improve relations with Europe. In late November, Tehran announced plans to send a senior diplomat to Geneva for talks with Britain, France, and Germany regarding its nuclear program. This move came in response to international criticism over Iran's nuclear activities and its refusal to allow full inspections.

Overall, Iran’s recent diplomatic efforts reflect a nuanced approach shaped by a changing international environment and internal pressures. The shift from confrontation to dialogue suggests that Iran is trying to protect its interests and secure its position in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.

The success of these efforts will depend on how effectively Iran can balance its domestic challenges, regional alliances, and foreign relations, particularly with the West.

By Aghakazim Guliyev