Russia’s oil and gas revenues to drop nearly 25% in 2025 Reuters estimates

Russian state oil and gas revenues are expected to nearly halve in December from a year earlier, falling to about 410 billion roubles ($5.17 billion), driven by lower global crude prices and a stronger rouble, according to Reuters calculations published on December 12.

For the full year, oil and gas revenues are projected to decline by nearly 25% to 8.44 trillion roubles, below the Finance Ministry’s revised forecast of 8.65 trillion roubles. The calculations are based on industry data and official statistics covering production, refining, and supplies.

Russia last recorded similarly low monthly oil and gas revenues in August 2020, when they fell to 405 billion roubles amid the collapse in oil prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Oil and gas income remains the Kremlin’s largest single source of revenue, accounting for roughly a quarter of total federal budget receipts. The downturn comes at a sensitive time for Moscow, which has sharply increased defence and security spending since launching its military campaign in Ukraine in February 2022.

Ukraine and its Western allies have repeatedly stated that they aim to weaken Russia’s ability to sustain the war by undermining its economy. The Finance Ministry had originally forecast oil and gas revenues of 10.94 trillion roubles for this year, but cut the estimate in October amid falling global oil prices, weighed down by concerns over a potential supply glut.

In November, the rouble-denominated price of Russian oil used for tax calculations dropped 17.1% month on month to 3,605 roubles per barrel. The Finance Ministry is scheduled to publish its official oil and gas revenue figures for December on January 14.

By Tamilla Hasanova