Reuters: US, Iran near possible military confrontation amid military buildup

Iran and the United States are sliding toward military conflict as hopes fade for a diplomatic resolution over Tehran’s nuclear programme, officials on both sides and diplomats in the Gulf and Europe told Reuters.

Iran’s Gulf neighbours and Israel now see a conflict as more likely than a settlement, amid one of the largest U.S. military buildups in the region since the 2003 Iraq invasion.

Israel’s government believes Tehran and Washington are at an impasse and is preparing for potential joint military action with the United States, though no decision has been made yet, a source familiar with the planning said. Last June, U.S. and Israeli airstrikes targeted Iranian military and nuclear facilities, marking the first joint action in less than a year.

Regional officials said Gulf oil producers are bracing for a confrontation that could destabilise the Middle East. Two Israeli officials told Reuters they see the gaps between Washington and Tehran as unbridgeable, and that the risk of near-term escalation is high.

“Both sides are sticking to their guns,” said Alan Eyre, a former U.S. diplomat and Iran specialist. “Nothing meaningful can emerge unless the U.S. and Iran walk back from their red lines – which I don't think they will. What Trump can't do is assemble all this military, and then come back with a 'so‑so' deal and pull out the military. I think he thinks he'll lose face. If he attacks, it's going to get ugly quickly.”

Two rounds of Iran-U.S. talks have stalled on core issues including uranium enrichment, ballistic missiles, and sanctions relief. When Omani mediators delivered missile-related proposals from the U.S., Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi refused to open the envelope and returned it, a source said.

After Geneva talks, Araghchi noted that the sides agreed on “guiding principles,” though the White House said significant differences remain. Iran is expected to submit a written proposal in the coming days, and Araghchi said he would have a draft counterproposal soon.

President Donald Trump, who has deployed aircraft carriers, warships, and jets to the region, warned Iran that it must make a deal or “really bad things” will happen, suggesting a 10-15 day timeline. Tehran responded with threats to retaliate against U.S. bases if attacked. Oil prices have risen amid the tension.

Trump has not decided whether to use military force but acknowledged he could order limited strikes to pressure Iran. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is scheduled to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on February 28, and full deployment of U.S. forces may not be complete until mid-March.

The U.S. core demand remains zero uranium enrichment in Iran, while Iran insists on retaining its nuclear capabilities and refuses to discuss ballistic missiles, denying any plans to build nuclear weapons. Analysts say any strike would likely begin by targeting Iran’s air defences and the Revolutionary Guards Navy, responsible for past tanker attacks and threats to close the Strait of Hormuz.

Some European and Arab officials question the strategic impact of military action, noting Iran’s leadership, led by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and protected by the Revolutionary Guards, remains resilient. Ali Larijani, a close Khamenei adviser, told Al Jazeera TV that Iran is ready to allow extensive monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Tehran has since informed IAEA chief Rafael Grossi of this decision.

David Makovsky of The Washington Institute summarised the standoff: Washington believes overwhelming force will compel Tehran to yield, Tehran bets Trump lacks appetite for a sustained campaign, and Israel views the gaps as too wide to close, making confrontation increasingly likely.

By Sabina Mammadli