Rising importance of Chinese-European climate partnership in light of US retreat

China holds a unique role on the global stage in regards to climate change, as it encompasses the world’s largest greenhouse-gas emissions while also being the leader in clean-technology development. With the US stepping back from global climate leadership and bearing this particular characteristic of China in mind, Chinese-European cooperation has become increasingly critical for achieving global climate goals.

In 2022, China emitted 15.7 gigatons of greenhouse gases, far exceeding the US’s six gigatons and the EU’s 3.6 gigatons. On a per capita basis, China’s emissions are 11 tons, higher than the EU’s 8.1 tons and the UK’s 6.3 tons, which are on track to fall below 2 tons by 2040.

According to an article by the Project Syndicate, these figures highlight that global warming mitigation requires coordinated international action, particularly ahead of the COP30 UN Climate Change Conference in Brazil. 

China has pledged to peak emissions by 2030 and achieve net-zero by 2060, but cumulative emissions until then could reach 250 gigatons, far outpacing expected contributions from the UK and EU, at roughly 4.5 and 45 gigatons respectively. This means China’s decisions will dominate the world’s remaining “carbon budget” and strongly influence average global temperatures by 2100.

China’s emissions are heavily concentrated in its coal-dominated power sector, which contributes 5.9 gigatons annually, and it plans to add 280 gigawatts of coal capacity by 2029. Its steel and cement industries alone produce over half of global emissions in these sectors, though construction slowdowns have started to reduce these figures.

At the same time, the article highlights that China leads the world in five key green technologies: solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, batteries, electric vehicles (EVs), and heat pumps. These technologies could replace up to three-quarters of global fossil-fuel use and associated emissions. EVs now account for nearly 50% of passenger car sales in China, compared with 23% in the EU and 10% in the US, while electricity meets 32% of final energy demand, versus 24% in Europe and the US.

In 2024, China installed approximately 400 gigawatts of solar and wind capacity, more than half of the global total. Although coal power continues to expand, it increasingly acts as a flexible backup for renewables, with total power-sector emissions falling 3% in the first half of 2025.

China’s deployment of clean technologies has also driven massive cost reductions and efficiency improvements: solar PV costs per watt have dropped 90% over 15 years, battery costs per kilowatt-hour have plummeted, and performance metrics like energy density and charging speed continue to improve. These advances accelerate emissions reductions globally.

How to streamline Chinese-European climate partnership

To leverage China’s dual role as a major emitter and technological leader, four priorities are highlighted in the article for Chinese-European collaboration. 

First, China should adopt more ambitious emissions targets, which could in turn encourage Europe to strengthen its medium-term commitments. The author warns that should China fail to do so, "European populists who decry climate commitments as costly and pointless will likely garner more electoral support."

Second, China should decarbonize heavy industry through innovation and steadily rising carbon pricing aligned with European levels. 

Third, Europe should embrace China’s clean-tech leadership, balancing competitiveness and security concerns with openness to imports and investment in low-risk sectors such as solar panels, batteries, and EVs. 

Finally, Europe and China should mobilize global finance to accelerate clean-energy deployment in Africa and other low-income regions. This takes an even more crucial character when considering that the African continent is on course to hold one of the most populous regions of the world in the future with a booming population growth. 

By Nazrin Sadigova