Russia expected to see massive boost in oil taxes from Iran tensions Reuters calculations show

Russia is set to see its largest single oil tax revenue nearly double to $9 billion in April, according to calculations by Reuters, driven by the oil and gas turmoil sparked by US and Israeli strikes on Iran.

This marks some of the first clear evidence of a financial windfall for Russia, the world’s second-largest oil exporter, stemming from the Iran conflict, which traders describe as triggering one of the most severe energy crises in recent memory.

The crisis escalated after Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz—a key passage for roughly 20% of global oil and LNG shipments—following airstrikes by the US and Israel at the end of February, pushing Brent crude futures well above $100 per barrel.

Russia’s primary oil and gas revenues are production-based, and the export duty on crude was eliminated at the start of 2024 as part of a broader multi-year tax reform in the sector.

Reuters’ estimates, drawing on preliminary production data and current oil prices, indicate that Russia’s mineral extraction tax on oil output will rise to around 700 billion roubles ($9 billion) in April, up from 327 billion roubles ($4.19 billion) in March.

The average price of Russia’s Urals crude, the benchmark for taxation, climbed to $77 per barrel in March—the highest since October 2023—rising 73% from February’s $44.59 per barrel and well above the $59 per barrel assumed in the 2026 state budget.

The Kremlin noted on April 7 that demand for Russian energy has surged from multiple regions amid a deepening global energy crisis that is destabilising oil and gas markets. Still, economists in Russia caution that the 2026 outlook may remain challenging, and the windfall is not without its limits.

By Jeyhun Aghazada