Stubb: NATO backs Ukraine’s deep strikes to pressure Russia

NATO leaders broadly support Ukraine’s intensified drone and missile strikes deep inside Russia as part of a strategy to increase pressure on Moscow and push it toward negotiations, Finland’s President Alexander Stubb said, arguing that Kyiv is now in its strongest position since the war began.

Speaking to the Financial Times on the eve of the NATO summit in Ankara, Stubb said the campaign has reshaped the strategic landscape, despite concerns over potential Russian nuclear escalation.

“I think that [all NATO leaders] understand why Ukraine is doing this,” Stubb said. “Everyone believes that we need to continue to increase the pressure.”

He added that Ukraine’s recent battlefield performance has influenced not only Western allies but also those attempting to mediate an end to the conflict.

“We are in a fairly good place when it comes to Ukraine because everyone, including our American friends, sees that Ukraine is right now on top on the battlefield,” he said. “That has changed the strategic thinking also of those who are trying to mediate peace.”

According to Stubb, Ukraine’s position has improved across multiple dimensions. “Ukraine is in a better position, militarily, politically and financially, than they have been at any time in this war. That is why we are seeing a lot of uneasy activity in Russia right now,” he added.

Ukraine has stepped up long-range strikes targeting infrastructure and military assets inside Russia, a strategy President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said is intended to “compel” Moscow to end its invasion.

Stubb suggested that bringing the war closer to the Russian public could influence domestic sentiment. “When war becomes personal . . . the Russian population is going to turn against it. This gives us an opportunity to get back to the negotiating table, which I think we all desperately want,” he said. “We all want to end this war.”

The remarks came as Russia intensified its aerial campaign against Ukraine. On Monday, Russian forces launched a second major air attack on Kyiv in less than a week, killing at least 11 people. The strike followed the deadliest bombardment of the Ukrainian capital this year, three days earlier, which killed 31 people.

On the ground, Russia’s offensive has slowed significantly, with heavy casualties reported. According to calculations by Black Bird Group, a Finland-based organisation that monitors the conflict, Russian forces lost around 9 square kilometres of territory in Ukraine in June. The group said this marked the first net territorial loss for Russia inside Ukraine since 2023.

Stubb argued that battlefield losses alone are unlikely to end the war. “Our reading is that Russia will not end this war due to losses on the battlefield, which of course are colossal,” he said.

He added that economic pressure is also unlikely to be decisive, pointing instead to internal dynamics. “It’s not going to be about a declining economy. But it is going to be about a change in public opinion. And public opinion is now changing in Russia.”

By Tamilla Hasanova