Trump’s Hormuz gamble: Iran to break before global oil shock bites

President Donald Trump has ordered preparations for what US officials describe as a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, escalating a high-stakes confrontation with Iran that is already rattling global energy markets, Yahoo Finance writes.

According to comments attributed to Trump in an interview with Axios, the administration intends to maintain restrictions on maritime traffic through the strategic waterway until Tehran agrees to concessions over its nuclear programme.

The move marks a significant intensification of what US officials describe as an “economic war” strategy aimed at forcing Iran into negotiations through financial and trade pressure. However, analysts warn that the approach is already reverberating far beyond Iran’s borders.

The Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply typically passes — has seen a near-collapse in traffic since the escalation began. Shipping data indicates daily transits have dropped from more than 120 vessels to single-digit levels, effectively choking a key artery of global energy flows.

Oil markets reacted sharply. Brent crude rose to its highest level since mid-2022, briefly surging above $120 a barrel, while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate climbed past $108, driven by fears of prolonged disruption.

Six Iranian tankers carrying crude were reportedly turned back in recent days under US enforcement actions, according to vessel tracking data, further tightening export flows from Tehran.

Iran’s economy is heavily dependent on hydrocarbons, with oil and gas accounting for the vast majority of export earnings. US officials have suggested the country is losing hundreds of millions of dollars per day as a result of the blockade, although these figures could not be independently verified.

Maritime intelligence assessments cited in the report suggest Iran may face logistical constraints within weeks as storage capacity reaches its limits, potentially forcing production cuts that could damage ageing energy infrastructure.

By Aghakazim Guliyev