Turkish, HTS pressure mounts on PKK/YPG: Will SDF agree to disarm? ISW analysis

Türkiye and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) are intensifying pressure on the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) — an armed group backed by the United States but deemed a terrorist organization by Türkiye due to its connections with the PKK/YPG — to disarm and integrate into the HTS-led armed forces.

The US-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warns that this strategy comes with the threat of a large-scale offensive on the territories controlled by the SDF, per Caliber.Az.

The ISW’s analysis suggests that Türkiye has deployed significant military forces along its border with Syria. Additionally, the Turkish army has dismantled parts of the border wall between Ain al-Arabi (Kobani) and Türkiye and ramped up drone strikes in the Manbij countryside. These actions signal preparations for a potential military campaign against PKK/YPG terrorists in northern Syria.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated that Türkiye would not need to intervene militarily if HTS resolves its issues with the SDF. On December 13, Fidan stressed that Türkiye's long-term objective in Syria is the elimination of PKK/YPG elements, making it clear that Ankara views the Kurdish group as a top priority for national security.

The ISW report also points out that HTS has called for a unified Syrian state without autonomous regions, a demand that implicitly asks the SDF to disband and cease to exist as a separate military and political entity. This aligns closely with Türkiye’s own demands for the disarmament of Kurdish groups and the dissolution of autonomous Kurdish forces in Syria.

Experts from the ISW argue that the pressure from Türkiye and HTS represents a serious existential threat to the PKK/YPG. The SDF may see Türkiye's proposition as an opportunity to avoid all-out war, but it would still ultimately mean the dismantling of their security forces. Türkiye's approach includes the integration of the SDF into a framework led by HTS, which would result in the disbandment of the SDF as an autonomous force and the elimination of the PKK/YPG threat in the region.

Although Türkiye’s proposal appears to give the SDF a chance to avoid further conflict, the likelihood of the SDF agreeing to such terms remains low. The SDF would be forced to disarm and relinquish its autonomy, ultimately agreeing to the establishment of a central government in Syria controlled by Damascus, as HTS demands. This would entail full subordination to the Syrian government, a condition that the SDF is unlikely to accept.

Moreover, analysts predict that internal unrest within the SDF, defections from its ranks, and the looming threat of a Turkish military offensive create a narrow window for engagement with both Turkish and Kurdish factions. The ISW notes that while Türkiye and HTS might be offering the SDF an exit from full-scale war, the terms would effectively dismantle the group and leave it with limited autonomy.

The ISW report concludes that Türkiye’s willingness to engage with HTS over the integration of the SDF into a transitional government structure suggests that Ankara is seeking a negotiated settlement rather than a politically and militarily costly offensive. This shift implies that Türkiye might prefer a political solution to the ongoing crisis, avoiding the potential destabilization and military escalation that could arise from a prolonged conflict.

By Tamilla Hasanova