Türkiye's mediation efforts face setback as Somali-Ethiopian tensions persist

Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud declared on August 17 that his country will halt negotiations with Ethiopia unless the latter acknowledges Somalia's sovereignty. This declaration jeopardizes Türkiye's mediation efforts aimed at reconciling the two East African nations.

In May, Türkiye initiated mediation between Somalia and Ethiopia following Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s visit to Ankara, Caliber.Az reports per foreign media.

The relationship between Somalia and Ethiopia soured earlier this year after Somaliland agreed to lease part of its Red Sea coast to Ethiopia, an arrangement Somalia denounced as a violation of its sovereignty.

Somali Foreign Minister Ambassador Ahmed Moallim Fiqi has criticized Abiy Ahmed for allegedly seeking to provoke conflict in the Horn of Africa to distract from internal issues. The agreement between Addis Ababa and Somaliland includes plans to build a naval base, which Somalia views as an infringement on its sovereignty.

In July, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan hosted talks with his Somali and Ethiopian counterparts, resulting in a joint statement that described the discussions as "candid and cordial." However, a planned second round of indirect talks in Ankara was moved to August but did not lead to significant progress.

Türkiye’s involvement is driven by its strong ties with both nations. Ankara is a major player in the Horn of Africa, with substantial investments in Ethiopia and a significant military presence in Somalia, including the largest Turkish military base abroad. The recent economic defence agreement between Türkiye and Somalia aims to bolster Somalia’s defence capabilities in exchange for economic benefits.

Türkiye’s mediation is part of its broader strategy to enhance its influence in Africa through diplomatic and economic means. The conflict's impact extends beyond Somalia and Ethiopia, potentially affecting regional stability in Djibouti, the Red Sea Basin, and countries like Egypt, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Sudan.

The dispute challenges Türkiye’s diplomatic skills as it seeks to reconcile conflicting positions. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has personally engaged with leaders from both Somalia and Ethiopia, but tangible results remain elusive. Somalia demands that Ethiopia not militarize its economic ambitions, while Ethiopia seeks a sea outlet that could require military presence.

The Turkish Foreign Minister has suggested that resolving tensions might involve granting Ethiopia access to the sea via Somalia, provided Somalia’s sovereignty is recognized.

However, reconciling the contradictory positions in the Red Sea MoU remains challenging. The prospects for Turkish mediation will depend on both parties' willingness to compromise, with continued diplomatic efforts necessary to prevent escalation into armed conflict.