Türkiye, Syria explore diplomatic reconciliation after decade-long rift

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Syrian President Bashar Assad have recently expressed interest in restoring diplomatic ties that have been severed for over a decade.

This move follows the breakdown of relations in 2011 amid Syria's civil war and Türkiye's support for opposition groups seeking Assad's overthrow. Erdogan has signalled his intention to arrange a meeting with Assad, marking a significant potential shift after years of hostility, Caliber.Az reports via foreign media.

Speaking at a NATO summit in Washington, Erdogan disclosed that he had recently invited Assad to meet either in Türkiye or a third country, with Türkiye's foreign minister tasked to follow up on the proposal. Despite previous unsuccessful attempts at normalization, efforts are once again underway, bolstered by Russian support and recent mediation offers from Iraq, which shares borders with both Türkiye and Syria.

In December 2022, defence ministers from Türkiye, Syria, and Russia met in Moscow in the first high-level ministerial talks between the rivals since 2011. However, these discussions did not lead to substantial progress, with Syrian officials publicly criticizing Türkiye's military presence in northwest Syria. Assad, in an interview with Sky News Arabia, previously characterized Erdogan's overtures as an attempt to legitimize Turkish influence in Syria.

The renewed push for reconciliation has geopolitical implications amidst ongoing conflicts in the region, including the war in Gaza and broader concerns of regional instability. Analysts suggest that both Türkiye and Syria may be motivated by insecurity and the desire to secure new alliances amid these volatile regional dynamics.

From Erdogan's perspective, there is a domestic imperative driven by increasing anti-Syrian sentiment in Türkiye and a desire to address the presence of over 3.6 million Syrian refugees within its borders. For Assad, restoring relations with Türkiye could help alleviate political isolation stemming from allegations of human rights abuses and war crimes during the civil war.

Despite their differences, both countries share an interest in mitigating Kurdish autonomy in northeast Syria, which remains a contentious issue. Türkiye is also concerned about the security implications of a potential U.S. withdrawal from northeast Syria, which could necessitate coordination with Damascus.

Analysts caution that while the current talks may lead to confidence-building measures and limited security agreements, a comprehensive resolution, such as a full Turkish withdrawal from northwest Syria, remains unlikely in the short term. Lingering grievances and complex geopolitical alignments could impede substantive progress, despite overlapping interests between Ankara and Damascus.

Public reactions vary within Türkiye and Syria. While there is cautious optimism among some in government-controlled Syria regarding the potential benefits of normalization, protests have erupted in northwest Syria against perceived concessions to Damascus. Kurdish groups in Syria have expressed apprehension, fearing that any agreement could undermine their hard-won autonomy and legitimize Turkish military actions in Kurdish-majority areas.

In conclusion, while the prospect of Turkish-Syrian rapprochement signals a potential shift in regional dynamics and security arrangements, achieving a durable agreement will require navigating deep-seated animosities and intricate geopolitical challenges that have long defined their relationship.