Weather conditions slow Russian drone strikes british defence intelligence reports

If production and launch sites are not disrupted, Russia could launch up to 1,500 kamikaze drones at Ukraine each month.

The decrease in the number of strikes in December is attributed to cloudy weather conditions, Caliber.Az reports, citing the message of UK’s Defence Ministry on X.

In November 2024, Russia deployed around 2,300 One Way Attack Uncrewed Aerial Systems (OWA UAS) of different types into Ukraine, exceeding the total from the previous month once again. The number of monthly OWA UAS launches has been steadily rising throughout 2024, with notable increases of over 200 compared to the previous month since July.

Between September and November 2024, it is estimated that 50-60 per cent of Russia's total OWA UAS launches were 'decoys.' These decoys, smaller and more affordable than the SHAHED-class UAS due to cheaper construction materials, are designed to overwhelm or confuse Ukraine's radar systems. 

By saturating the airspace, they force Ukrainian air defence teams to work harder, potentially leading to fatigue over time. Some decoy systems may still carry small explosive payloads (up to 5kg), making them dangerous if they reach their targets. The growth rate of launches from October to November slowed compared to earlier months. In December 2024, around 850 launches have been recorded so far. 

The weather likely impacted operations, with some nights seeing larger waves of launches following periods of reduced activity. Russian OWA UAS continue to target locations across Ukraine, allowing Russia to maintain pressure on Ukraine while providing time for its Long Range Aviation Missile stocks to replenish.

By Naila Huseynova