Who will win the Baku Grand Prix? Caliber.Az’s Formula 1 prediction

The 15th round of the Formula 1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix will start in the Azerbaijani capital on September 24, and on the 26th, the sporting world will learn the name of its ninth winner.

As a reminder, the first Grand Prix of this iconic motorsport competition was held in Baku in 2016 under the name “European Grand Prix”. The race was won by 31-year-old German Nico Rosberg, who was driving for Mercedes at the time. Notably, he went on to finish that year as both the winner of the Baku race and the Formula 1 world champion, ending his career as an undefeated world champion. From the following year, the Formula 1 race in Baku was renamed the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, and its first winner was Australian Daniel Ricciardo, who was driving for the then Red Bull–TAG Heuer team.

The winners of the Azerbaijan Grand Prix then changed from year to year, with none managing to repeat their success until Mexican Sergio Perez did so in 2023, having first won the Baku race in 2021. On both occasions, Perez was driving for the same team, Red Bull–Honda. The 2020 race was cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which was sweeping across the world at the time.

In addition, four-time Formula 1 race winner Max Verstappen claimed victory in the Azerbaijani capital twice, in 2022 and 2025, and it is with him that we begin our prediction. The 29-year-old Dutch driver, who races for Oracle Red Bull Racing, will surely seek to defend his Baku title and is certainly capable of doing so, despite his current struggles. With 145 points, he is currently sixth in the standings, 22 points behind fifth-placed reigning world champion Lando Norris of Britain. However, considering that Verstappen finished second at the previous Grand Prix in Madrid, behind only Italian Andrea Kimi Antonelli of Mercedes-AMG, it can be said that Max will be highly focused and determined to complete a hat-trick in the Azerbaijani capital.

Although 20-year-old Antonelli, who is now sensationally leading the Formula 1 standings with 292 points after 14 rounds, will also be keen to leave his mark in Baku. A victory would effectively put him out of reach of the other contenders for the world title, including second-placed George Russell, who has 211 points and finished fifth in Madrid. Victory would give Andrea another 25 points, and even if Russell finishes second, the gap would increase by another seven points to 88.

As for old hand Hamilton, he is once again up to his tricks. After winning the seventh round in Barcelona, the seven-time world champion somehow managed to retire on Lap 7 in Madrid while still retaining third place in the overall standings with 191 points. Now, 41-year-old Lewis needs to repeat his 2018 success and win in Baku again if he is to remain among the top three and preserve his admittedly hypothetical, but nevertheless real, chances of securing an eighth world title.

Thus, the list of the main contenders for victory in the Azerbaijani capital looks like this: Verstappen, Antonelli and Hamilton. However, Lando Norris could also spring a surprise, as could Oscar Piastri, who won in our capital in 2024 and feels particularly comfortable on the Baku circuit, as well as Russell, who has suffered some catastrophic bad luck in our race. It is enough to recall that in his debut year in Formula 1, he ran over a drain cover, while in the past two years he has come within touching distance of victory, finishing third in 2024 and second in 2025. So perhaps the time has come for him to win — at least if the pattern is anything to go by.

However, it is difficult to imagine Sergio Perez, who has yet to score a single point, or Finland’s Valtteri Bottas, who won in Baku in 2019, rising from the ashes. Nor is a victory by Spanish fan favourite Fernando Alonso, now also one of the outsiders in the world championship, particularly easy to envision. Their time has passed, and even the dazzling Baku race in the thrilling Formula 1 championship, where established reputations are shattered almost every year, may not be enough to restore these drivers to their former glory.

By Vugar Vugarli, specially for Caliber.Az