Will Khamenei’s son play role in Iranian succession? Iran to elect new Supreme Leader

The general elections held in Iran on March 1 concerned not only parliamentarians but also members of the Assembly of Experts. This is a special state body in Iran that elects the Supreme Leader of the country.

For a majority of Iranians, the March 1 election was a referendum on the future of the Islamic Republic. In the 12 rounds of parliamentary elections that Iran has held since 1979, the turnout was highest when voters believed that their votes actually mattered. The 2024 election was neither free nor fair, and that is why Iranians opted to ignore Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s call to vote, with only around 41 per cent of those eligible coming out to cast their ballot. Frustration among younger Iranians, who feel the government’s priorities do not reflect their own, was especially pronounced. The real question now is what comes next, Caliber.Az reports citing the Moscow-based Middle East Institute.

The results of the March 1 election for Iran’s Assembly of Experts hold great importance for understanding how the regime is preparing for the selection of the next supreme leader. The major responsibility of this 88-member body is to designate Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s successor, either after his death or if he becomes incapable of fulfilling his responsibilities.

"The "highlight" of the current elections (the previous ones were held in 2016) is that the elected composition of the Assembly of Experts will really have to elect a new Supreme Leader, because the current one - Khamenei - turns 85 years old in a month and is probably a "departing figure."

Serving as Iran’s president since 2021, Raisi remains a potential contender for the top job today. However, given that during Ayatollah Khamenei's rule, all presidents have eventually lost their position in the regime’s inner circle, it is uncertain how long Raisi will remain in the running. This uncertainty also applies to other potential candidates as well, including Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the current supreme leader.

In essence, while Ayatollah Khamenei may lean toward a specific individual as his successor now, there is no guarantee that this preference won’t change in the future. Therefore, depending on the timing of his passing, the prospects of various individuals to succeed him may increase or decrease as a result.

All of this suggests that it is insufficient for the sixth Assembly of Experts to adhere to the supreme leader’s current views; this assembly must be flexible enough to unequivocally adhere to his future views too, both about his successor and other key issues.

These traits seem to correspond well with the make-up of the new, "obedient" Assembly of Experts that emerged from the recent election, although it is of course hard to predict how the members of this assembly may behave in the future and how that might shape the fate of the Islamic Republic more broadly.