WSJ: Lithuania prepares for unthinkable on Russia’s border

European governments are reassessing their security preparedness following the release of a wargame suggesting that NATO and EU members may struggle to respond swiftly to a limited Russian military incursion, particularly in the Baltic region.

The exercise, organised in December by Germany’s Die Welt newspaper and the German Wargaming Centre at the Helmut-Schmidt University of the German Armed Forces, simulated a scenario in which Russia used a humanitarian pretext to seize the Lithuanian city of Marijampole, Caliber.Az reports via The Wall Street Journal.

The results have intensified debate among European security officials about how quickly Russia could pose a broader military threat.

Officials and analysts involved in the simulation suggested that tensions between Europe and U.S. President Donald Trump over issues including Greenland, Ukraine and trade could complicate NATO’s collective response. Participants examined a scenario in which Washington declined to invoke NATO’s Article 5 mutual defence clause, while some European allies hesitated to intervene militarily.

“Our assessment is that Russia will be able to move large amounts of troops within one year,” the Netherlands Defence Minister Ruben Brekelmans said in an interview. “We see that they are already increasing their strategic inventories and are expanding their presence and assets along the NATO borders.”

European security officials note that Russia has shifted to a war-focused economic model, allocating significant resources to rearmament and recruitment. Some policymakers now believe Moscow could present a direct challenge to NATO sooner than earlier projections, which had suggested Russia would not be capable of threatening the alliance before 2029.

Lithuanian officials acknowledged growing public concern but stressed their readiness to resist aggression. “Anxiety is very visible in my country, but at the same time, we are preparing to defend ourselves,” said Deividas Matulionis, Lithuania’s national security adviser. “They will be fighting, definitely, even before the reinforcements come.”

The wargame scenario focused on Marijampole, a strategically important transport hub near the narrow corridor linking the Baltic states to Poland and the rest of NATO territory. In the simulation, Russia reportedly relied heavily on hybrid tactics, including information campaigns and drone-laid mines, to limit NATO’s response and rapidly establish control.

“Deterrence depends not only on capabilities, but on what the enemy believes about our will, and in the wargame my ‘Russian colleagues’ and I knew: Germany will hesitate. And this was enough to win,” said Franz-Stefan Gady, a Vienna-based military analyst who played the Russian chief of general staff.

Some military officials disputed the exercise’s conclusions, arguing that real-world intelligence and mobilisation capabilities would likely prevent such a rapid advance. Rear Adm. Giedrius Premeneckas, Lithuania’s chief of defence staff, said Lithuania’s armed forces would be able to respond to limited threats independently if necessary. “It would be a dilemma for Russia to sustain Kaliningrad, and if Russia starts something, it must be said very clearly by NATO that if you do, you will lose Kaliningrad,” he said.

NATO commanders continue to emphasise readiness. The commander of German land forces, Lt. Gen. Christian Freuding, said during a visit to Lithuania that, while NATO intelligence still estimates Russia may not be capable of confronting alliance members before 2029, Germany and its allies “are ready for the fight tonight, whatever it takes.”

However, opinions remain divided across Europe. Some leaders point to Russia’s slow progress and heavy casualties in Ukraine as evidence of limited military capacity. “Putin has failed in virtually everything he set out to do,” Finnish President Alexander Stubb said in an interview. “He hasn’t even attempted to come to NATO because he is not succeeding in Ukraine. So don’t overestimate Russian capacity.”

Security analysts involved in the wargame nevertheless warned that Russia could still attempt limited operations designed to test NATO unity rather than pursue a large-scale conflict. “Putin is opportunistic, and if he sees an opportunity, he will toy with it, test the reactions, and when he has more capabilities, try to expand the results,” said Nico Lange, a former senior German defence official.

“It can happen right now. If the goal is to show that NATO’s Article 5 doesn’t work, to split the Europeans, what you need is the will, and not the extraordinarily large military capabilities. Why should Putin wait for the Europeans to be ready?”

Russian officials have repeatedly denied any intention to attack NATO or EU territory, although Western officials frequently cite Moscow’s denials prior to its 2022 invasion of Ukraine as grounds for caution.

By Aghakazim Guliyev