Zangezur Corridor: Trump’s victory & Tehran’s setback Fox News on new South Caucasus map

The American Fox News channel has published an analysis exploring the geopolitical implications of the agreement signed between Baku and Yerevan in the United States. Caliber.Az reprints some excerpts from the piece with moderations.

“President Donald Trump’s new deal in the South Caucasus has ended a decades-long conflict and handed Washington a rare strategic foothold on Iran’s northern border, experts say.

The agreement [Joint declaration - ed.], signed earlier this month between Armenia and Azerbaijan, grants the US a 99-year lease over the Zangezur Corridor - a narrow strip of land that will serve as a critical trade and energy route to Europe, bypassing Tehran entirely. Iranian American journalist and dissident Banafsheh Zand told Fox News Digital the move is ‘a wonderful gain for the US’ that also delivers a ‘slap in the face’ to the regime in Tehran.

The corridor has long been at the center of the Karabakh conflict, which displaced tens of thousands and fueled three decades of instability. Trump’s intervention brought both sides to the table and created what observers say is a new trade and security lifeline linking the Caspian Basin to Europe, bypassing Iran entirely.

Known as the Trump Route for Peace & Prosperity [TRIPP], economically, the agreement secures Washington a direct role in overseeing the flow of Caspian hydrocarbons to Europe. By controlling this artery, the US not only generates billions in future trade and investment but also locks Europe into alternative supply routes.

For Tehran, it represents lost revenue, lost leverage, and the end of its ability to act as a mandatory gatekeeper for east-west commerce.

Zand said the deal is not only historic but also a direct win for Washington. 

"It’s a wonderful gain for the US," she said. "American contractors will be supervising oil and gas from the Caspian Basin, routed through Zangezur and Türkiye to Europe. The profit margins are great, and it all happens under NATO’s blessing."

Zand said the potential goes even further. 

"Nobody’s talking about it yet, but I don’t think it’s out of the question to see US bases there," she said. 

For Iran, the corridor represents what Zand called a nightmare scenario. Tehran has long used its geography to shape energy and trade flows. By inserting the US into the region, the new deal effectively strips Iran of that leverage. 

Zand put it in stark terms: "Iran is shaped like a cat, a sitting cat. This corridor literally runs above the cat’s ears.

Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies Iran Program, said the corridor exposes how vulnerable Iran has become in the Caucasus. 

"Both the defeat of Armenia in the most recent war with Azerbaijan, as well as the political problems between Moscow and Yerevan today, have made it harder for the Islamic Republic to really benefit from its traditional economic and political relationship with Armenia," he told Fox News Digital. "They still do have ties…If there is any way to throw stones at this agreement, or extract concessions on the back end, they will try."

The timing, Zand argued, makes the impact even greater. She pointed to Iran’s weakening position since October 7, 2023, and Israel's recent 12-day war with Tehran. 

The killing of senior IRGC commanders and nuclear scientists has deepened the sense of vulnerability inside Tehran. 

"They can huff and puff about blowing the house down, but the truth is, there’s a whole lot of fear among the regime’s leaders now," Zand said. 

Trump brings peace to Caucasus 

Ben Taleblu added that Washington is now using these shifts to turn Iran’s weakness into opportunity. 

"Wherever the regime is weak, that invites pushback, whether militarily or economically," he said. "The US has followed Israel’s military success against the Islamic Republic with strikes of its own against nuclear facilities, and it is now following Azerbaijan’s battlefield success with a political and economic success of its own. This corridor is another example of America moving in when Tehran is most vulnerable."

Zand, whose father was a well-known Iranian journalist and intellectual assassinated by the regime, said she views Trump’s direct involvement as the key to the corridor’s success.

"Because it’s Trump, it makes all the difference," she said. "Trump doesn’t care about not hurting people’s feelings. He responds to how people act. And with this move, he’s sitting over Iran like a vulture-ominous, watching, ready."

The deal was reached with NATO backing and has already been compared by some observers to historic peace accords. Zand believes the significance lies not only in ending a 30-year conflict but also in turning the US presence in the Caucasus into a permanent reality,” the article reads.