Axios: US, Russia near “handshake” deal to keep nuclear limits alive

The United States and Russia are reportedly moving toward a temporary agreement to continue observing the New START nuclear arms control treaty beyond its scheduled expiration on February 5, three sources familiar with the discussions told Axios.

Officials cautioned that the draft plan still requires formal approval from both Presidents. Negotiations have been ongoing over the past 24 hours in Abu Dhabi, though sources did not confirm that a final agreement had been reached.

New START, which limits the number of deployable nuclear warheads and delivery systems for the two countries, remains the last major arms control framework constraining the arsenals of the United States and Russia, which together account for roughly 85% of the world’s nuclear weapons.

President Trump’s envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, led talks with Russian officials on the sidelines of Ukraine-related discussions in Abu Dhabi. A US official clarified that while the treaty will formally expire, both sides have agreed “to operate in good faith and to start a discussion about ways it could be updated.”

Another source indicated that, in practical terms, the two nations would commit to observing the treaty’s terms for at least six months while negotiating a potential successor agreement.

In parallel, US European Command announced the resumption of military-to-military dialogue with Russia, which had been suspended in 2021 ahead of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The decision emerged from Kushner and Witkoff’s negotiations.

New START imposes caps on the number of warheads the US and Russia can deploy on submarines, missiles, and bombers and includes key transparency measures. Russian President Vladimir Putin had previously indicated support for a short-term extension, though the Russian Foreign Ministry criticized Washington for allegedly leaving “our ideas deliberately unanswered.” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that Russia remains “ready for dialogue with the United States on limiting strategic offensive arms if Washington responds constructively.”

White House officials have expressed reservations about extending New START because it does not include China, whose nuclear arsenal, while smaller, is expanding rapidly. Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized that “true arms control in the 21st century…cannot exclude China,” noting the disparity in current stockpiles. Beijing has so far shown no interest in joining any multilateral agreement.

The New START discussions reportedly proceeded without direct involvement from the State Department’s arms control experts. Meanwhile, Under Secretary for Arms Control Thomas DiNanno is scheduled to address a United Nations disarmament conference in Geneva on February 6. One US official warned that any extension would likely be “a handshake” deal, as a formal legal extension is technically not permissible.

By Vafa Guliyeva