Azerbaijan awaits real steps from Armenia Peace is built not by words

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan congratulated Azerbaijan on the occasion of Gurban Bayrami (Eid al-Adha) in a social media post. “Congratulations to the Republic of Azerbaijan and the people of Azerbaijan on the occasion of Kurban Bayram. Wishing peace and prosperity to our countries and peoples,” he wrote, also extending his greetings on this sacred holiday for Muslims worldwide to the leaders of Türkiye and Iran – Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Masoud Pezeshkian.

To imagine something like this five years ago was, to put it mildly, practically impossible. Back then, Pashinyan was engaged in stirring up a new war with Azerbaijan, declaring to the whole world that “Karabakh is Armenia, period.” In July 2020, Armenian armed forces units violated the ceasefire regime near the Tovuz district, using artillery installations to shell Azerbaijani positions and attempting to launch an offensive. 

As a result of the adequate measures taken by the Azerbaijani army, the enemy suffered a serious blow – over 100 Armenian soldiers were destroyed, enemy combat equipment was disabled – and they retreated. Unfortunately, 12 servicemen of the Azerbaijani army, including Major General Polad Hashimov and Colonel Ilgar Mirzayev, heroically died while repelling the enemy attack.

The five-day battles in Tovuz, which ended in victory, paved the way for the liberation of Azerbaijan’s territories that had been under occupation for many years. On September 27, 2020, the Second Karabakh War began, during which Azerbaijan, thanks to the courage and unparalleled bravery of its soldiers and officers—many of whom gave their lives for the Motherland—achieved a brilliant victory, driving the occupiers out of Azerbaijan’s ancestral lands. Jabrayil, Hadrut, Fuzuli, Zangilan, Gubadli, Shusha, and other settlements were liberated. On the night of November 9–10, 2020, Nikol Pashinyan was forced to sign the Trilateral Statement on the cessation of hostilities.

However, the 44-day war did not serve as a lesson for the Armenian authorities. The leadership of that country continued to provide political, financial, and military support to the Karabakh junta, ignoring the warnings of official Baku. The result of this reckless behaviour was a one-day anti-terrorist operation conducted in the autumn of 2023 in the Karabakh economic region. As a result, the flag of Azerbaijan was raised in Khankendi, the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country were fully restored, and most of the former leaders of the Karabakh junta were detained and brought to Baku.

We present this retrospective of events for one reason only: to underscore that neither Pashinyan nor the current Armenian leadership has ever changed its position voluntarily. Such shifts have only occurred under the influence of external factors. We are witnessing the same today. Having repeatedly seen Azerbaijan's ability to achieve its objectives, official Yerevan—under the pressure of new realities—has now taken a course towards normalising relations with Azerbaijan and Türkiye.

In principle, this is a positive development, but there are several critical aspects to consider. As the initiator of the peace process with Armenia, Azerbaijan has clearly and unequivocally stated that two conditions must be fulfilled by the Armenian side in order to sign a peace treaty. First, official Yerevan must agree to the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group. Second, it must amend the Armenian Constitution, which currently contains territorial claims against Azerbaijan.

So, everything now depends on whether the Armenian leadership is prepared to take concrete steps to eliminate the two clear obstacles on the path to signing a peace treaty—despite all the resistance from the opposition, revanchists, and nationalist circles, who will no doubt also target Pashinyan’s recent holiday greetings with harsh criticism.

However, unless the aforementioned conditions—reasonable and essential for establishing lasting peace—are fulfilled, there can be no peace agreement with official Baku. And Armenia will remain a geopolitical and economic dead end, while Pashinyan’s wishes for peace and prosperity will amount to nothing more than empty rhetoric.