On the threshold Reflections on Azerbaijan’s triumphs and challenges

We find ourselves perplexed: only yesterday—or at most, last week—we were celebrating the New Year, and today we are already preparing to bid farewell to the old one.

In just five weeks, 2025 will slip into the stream of eternity. Although a little over a month remains, December passes swiftly. Its name is no accident: in Turkish, it is called Aralık, hinting at its transitional nature. The Turks also call it Kanun-i Evvel. But I digress into linguistics. What has 2025 brought us, and what has it taken away? One could write volumes. Here, I will attempt a concise reflection on the key events of a year soon to become history.

Azerbaijan has skillfully harnessed the fruits of the Great Victory. Thousands are returning to the restored lands, marking what is being called the Great Return. This revival is accompanied by the Great Construction, whose achievements are admired by hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijani citizens and visitors alike. Beyond its symbolic significance, this reconstruction also strengthens the economy: investments in the liberated territories are already beginning to bear fruit. The challenge lies in managing these emerging opportunities wisely—which, so far, we are.

Azerbaijan is also making strides in the struggle for peace. Like military battles, this fight consists of countless small episodes. It unfolds on many fronts: in meeting halls, behind the scenes, online, and through increasingly routine visits between Azerbaijan and Armenia. This is only the beginning of the journey, but we are moving forward—slowly and cautiously, as progress in such matters must inevitably be.

Directly connected to this is another arena—the diplomatic one. The summer meeting in Washington went far beyond conventional diplomacy. Intuitively sensing a shift from the traditional currents of U.S. policy toward the breeze from Mar-a-Lago—the Trump family estate, where they have resided since 2019—Azerbaijan caught it in its sails, charting a course for regional cooperation. What makes these new winds unique is their emphasis on open pragmatism, into which the traditional agenda is fully integrated. In the past, the interests of overseas partners were often obscured behind formalities and half-hints. Today, by “calling a cat a cat,” the White House communicates sincerely—both with itself and with its partners.

A notable dynamic is emerging in relations with Armenia. There is no euphoria—and there cannot be—but Baku and Yerevan are gradually moving toward a framework for interaction, supporting one another in establishing ties. More precisely, they are progressing toward establishment, because one cannot normalise what does not yet exist.

Azerbaijan has also emerged with honour from a sharp confrontation with its northern neighbour. Normally inclined to compromise, Baku reminded everyone that it knows how to see matters through to the end. The issue now appears to have been resolved to the mutual satisfaction of both sides. A similar resolution seems to be approaching regarding the longstanding misunderstanding with France—I cannot overlook that Paris’s official position since September 2020 has been nothing short of a misunderstanding. Today, peaceful statements are coming from Paris, to which Baku naturally responds in kind.

Another major success for Baku and Ankara is the transformation of the Organization of Turkic States into a significant geopolitical force. Türkiye and Azerbaijan have championed this agenda for many years, even when it did not elicit much optimism from other partners in the format.

The war in Ukraine is also moving toward a tragically predictable conclusion. Kyiv never had a real chance in a war of attrition—and still does not. The scale of passions and the daily toll in Gaza may be comparable, yet that conflict remains unresolved. Throughout these crises, Baku has maintained a measured and cautious stance, allowing it to remain an active player without falling victim to the shifting, hastily issued—and just as hastily withdrawn—statements of the major actors.

Distance brings clarity, and by the end of 2025 it became especially evident how successful Baku had been the previous year in hosting COP. I am not even referring to the chaos caused by yesterday’s pavilion fire, but to the fact that the wording of the final document underwent changes that many participants considered absolutely unacceptable. With all due respect to our Brazilian colleagues, any claims that COP in Baku was merely a “routine gathering” have once again collapsed into dust.

On the domestic front, as a victorious nation adept at confronting external challenges, Azerbaijan must demonstrate the same effectiveness at home—by further optimising governance, eradicating the remnants of “old-fashioned” approaches, and improving the welfare of its citizens. Yet there are those who cling stubbornly to the past—whether the past of yesterday or the day before. They hesitate to leave the station called “Yesterday,” trying even to drag fragments of the old platform into the present. But they fail. The most unyielding must be removed.

Sometimes it feels as though part of the state apparatus struggles to keep pace with its leader. The President moves with a dynamism and speed that certain officials find difficult to match—they are unable to absorb, process, and transform his ideas into effective outcomes. This is not simply a question of age or education; it reflects the presence—or absence—of an inherent potential. Yet even here, a productive critical mass is gradually forming: people capable of understanding the tasks at hand, approaching them creatively, and delivering the results that are needed.

And now, a note on sports—football, to be precise. Yes, football: a sport that, suddenly, no longer makes us feel ashamed. One can only hope that, in time, we will take as much pride in it as we do in our country as a whole.

It is still too early to wish a Happy New Year. For now, then, farewell to the old year—and wishing everyone a pleasant weekend.